U.S. Livestock Cold Storage Update – Aug ’15
Pork – Stocks Increase to New July Record High
According to USDA, Jul ’15 U.S. frozen pork stocks of 635.2 million pounds increased 0.1% MOM and 19.1% YOY, setting a new record high for the month of July. Pork stocks have increased YOY for six month in a row after 11 consecutive months of YOY declines were experienced from Mar ’14 – Jan ’15. The June – July increase in pork stocks of 0.6 million pounds, or 0.1%, was also strong when compared to the three year average June – July seasonal decline of 22.9 million pounds, or 4.0%. Jul ’15 pork stocks finished 17.1% higher than the three year average July pork stocks.
Beef – Stocks Remain Significantly Higher on YOY Basis, Finish up 23.7%
Jun ’15 U.S. frozen beef stocks of 455.1 million pounds declined 4.0% MOM but remained up 23.7% YOY. The monthly YOY increase in beef stocks was the eighth in a row after nine consecutive months of YOY declines were experienced from Mar ’14 – Nov ’14. The June – July decline in beef stocks of 19.1 million pounds, or 4.0%, was greater than the three year average June – July seasonal decline of 5.5 million pounds, or 0.9%, however Jul ’15 beef stocks remained 5.7% higher than the three year average July beef stocks.
Chicken – Stocks Remain Significantly Higher on YOY Basis, Finish up 22.1%
Jul ’15 U.S. frozen chicken stocks of 767.9 million pounds increased 6.0% MOM and 22.1% YOY to a 13 year high for the month of July. Chicken stocks increased YOY for the eighth month in a row after nine consecutive months of YOY declines were experienced from Mar ’14 – Nov ’14. The June – July increase in chicken stocks of 43.5 million pounds, or 6.0%, was significantly greater than the three year average June – July seasonal increase of 21.6 million pounds, or 3.5%. Stocks have built as the Russian import ban continues to negatively affect U.S. broiler exports. U.S. broiler export volumes have declined by 7.4% YOY since the ban was announced. Jul ’15 chicken stocks finished 16.2% higher than the three year average July chicken stocks.
Overall, combined Jul ’15 U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks remained below the record high experienced in Apr ’15, but finished above the 96th percentile of historical monthly figures while exceeding 95% of total maximum historical storage capacity. Individually, Jul ’15 U.S. pork stocks finished above 90% of historical maximum storage levels, while U.S. beef and chicken stocks were also relatively high, finishing at 87% and 83% of historical maximum storage levels, respectively.
On a seasonal basis, combined Jul ’15 pork, beef and chicken stocks set a new July record high. Individually, Jul ’15 U.S. pork stocks set a new record high for the month of July, beef stocks approached the 2006 July high and chicken stocks finished at approximately 88% of historical maximum storage levels for the month of July.
According to USDA, Jul ’15 U.S. frozen pork stocks of 635.2 million pounds increased 0.1% MOM and 19.1% YOY, setting a new record high for the month of July. Pork stocks have increased YOY for six month in a row after 11 consecutive months of YOY declines were experienced from Mar ’14 – Jan ’15. The June – July increase in pork stocks of 0.6 million pounds, or 0.1%, was also strong when compared to the three year average June – July seasonal decline of 22.9 million pounds, or 4.0%. Jul ’15 pork stocks finished 17.1% higher than the three year average July pork stocks.
Beef – Stocks Remain Significantly Higher on YOY Basis, Finish up 23.7%
Jun ’15 U.S. frozen beef stocks of 455.1 million pounds declined 4.0% MOM but remained up 23.7% YOY. The monthly YOY increase in beef stocks was the eighth in a row after nine consecutive months of YOY declines were experienced from Mar ’14 – Nov ’14. The June – July decline in beef stocks of 19.1 million pounds, or 4.0%, was greater than the three year average June – July seasonal decline of 5.5 million pounds, or 0.9%, however Jul ’15 beef stocks remained 5.7% higher than the three year average July beef stocks.
Chicken – Stocks Remain Significantly Higher on YOY Basis, Finish up 22.1%
Jul ’15 U.S. frozen chicken stocks of 767.9 million pounds increased 6.0% MOM and 22.1% YOY to a 13 year high for the month of July. Chicken stocks increased YOY for the eighth month in a row after nine consecutive months of YOY declines were experienced from Mar ’14 – Nov ’14. The June – July increase in chicken stocks of 43.5 million pounds, or 6.0%, was significantly greater than the three year average June – July seasonal increase of 21.6 million pounds, or 3.5%. Stocks have built as the Russian import ban continues to negatively affect U.S. broiler exports. U.S. broiler export volumes have declined by 7.4% YOY since the ban was announced. Jul ’15 chicken stocks finished 16.2% higher than the three year average July chicken stocks.
Overall, combined Jul ’15 U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks remained below the record high experienced in Apr ’15, but finished above the 96th percentile of historical monthly figures while exceeding 95% of total maximum historical storage capacity. Individually, Jul ’15 U.S. pork stocks finished above 90% of historical maximum storage levels, while U.S. beef and chicken stocks were also relatively high, finishing at 87% and 83% of historical maximum storage levels, respectively.
On a seasonal basis, combined Jul ’15 pork, beef and chicken stocks set a new July record high. Individually, Jul ’15 U.S. pork stocks set a new record high for the month of July, beef stocks approached the 2006 July high and chicken stocks finished at approximately 88% of historical maximum storage levels for the month of July.