U.S. Livestock & Meat Trade Update – Feb ’16
Executive Summary
U.S. livestock and meat trade figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Dec ’15. Highlights from the updated report include:
• Net pork trade remained higher on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month, finishing 11.9% above the previous year as export volumes remained strong.
• Net beef trade finished at a positive value for the second consecutive month as YOY declines in import volumes outweighed YOY declines in export volumes.
• Broiler exports remained weak, declining 15.0% YOY to a new four and a half year low.
Additional Report Details
Pork – YOY Net Trade Remains Higher on Strong Exports
According to USDA, Dec ’15 U.S. pork export volumes declined 3.8% MOM on a daily average basis from the seven month high experienced in Nov ’15 but remained higher on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month, increasing by 8.7%. Of the major export destinations, YOY gains in export volumes were led by combined shipments to Hong Kong, Taiwan and China (+35.2%), followed by Mexico (+10.2%), Japan (+9.4%) and Canada (+4.8%). Export volumes destined to South Korea declined on a YOY basis for the second time in the past three months, finishing down 0.5%. U.S. pork exports to the aforementioned countries accounted for over 85% of all pork export volumes during Dec ’15.
Dec ’15 U.S. pork imports finished 0.4% lower than the previous year but remained at the second highest figure on record for the month of December. U.S. pork imports had increased YOY in 19 of the past 21 months leading up to Dec ’15. Dec ’15 U.S. net pork trade finished up 11.9% YOY as increases in export volumes continue to outweigh strong import volumes. ’14-’15 annual net pork trade finished down 10.0% to a new five year low, however ’15-’16 net pork trade is up 15.2% YOY throughout the first quarter of the production season.
U.S. pork export volumes have strengthened considerably over the past 25 years, increasing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.2%, while U.S. pork imports have remained fairly flat, increasing at a CAGR of 0.3% over the same time period. ’13-’14 annual pork imports experienced much stronger growth, finishing 10.5% higher than the previous year, the largest YOY percentage gain in 11 years. Despite the increase in pork imports, ’13-’14 annual pork exports volumes remained over five times as large as import volumes. Pork export volumes remained over four times as large as import volumes throughout the ’14-’15 production season despite declining to a five year low on an absolute basis.
Beef & Veal – Net Trade Finishes Positive for Second Consecutive Month
Dec ’15 U.S. beef & veal export volumes remained weak, declining 7.5% YOY and 6.2% MOM on a daily average basis. Beef & veal export volumes have declined YOY for 15 consecutive months through December. Of the major export destinations, YOY declines in export volumes were led by Japan (-17.3%), followed by combined volumes to Hong Kong, Taiwan and China (-17.0%), Mexico (-8.4%) and Canada (-2.7%). Export volumes to South Korea increased YOY for the second consecutive month, finishing 8.6% above the previous year. U.S. beef & veal exports to the aforementioned countries accounted for over 85% of all beef & veal export volumes in Dec ’15.
Dec ’15 U.S. beef & veal imports remained weak, declining by 35.2% YOY and 4.9% MOM on a daily average basis to a new 23 month low. Beef & veal import volumes had increased YOY for 19 consecutive months prior to the declines experienced in the most recent three months, exceeding export volumes by 38.6% over the period. The YOY decline in beef & veal imports outweighed the decline in export volumes, resulting in Dec ’15 net beef & veal trade finishing at a positive value for the second consecutive month. Net beef & veal trade had finished negative for 20 consecutive months from Mar ’14 – Oct ’15.
’13-’14 annual U.S. beef & veal imports finished higher than annual U.S. beef & veal exports for the first time in four years. This trend continued into the ’14-’15 production season as annual imports increased to a ten year high and beef & veal net trade declined to a new eight year low.
Chicken –Net Trade Declines to an Eight Year Low for the Month of December
Dec ’15 U.S. broiler export volumes remained weak, declining 15.0% YOY and 6.4% MOM on a daily average basis to a new four and a half year low. Monthly export volumes have declined YOY throughout 14 of the past 15 months as demand from several major U.S. broiler import markets remain weak. Combined broiler export volumes to Hong Kong, Taiwan and China finished down 30.2% YOY while broiler export volumes to Canada declined 5.8% YOY. Shipments to Mexico increased YOY for the second consecutive month, however, finishing up 6.4%. Broiler export volumes to Mexico have accounted for over a quarter of the total broiler export volumes during Dec ’15.
Dec ’15 U.S. broiler imports continued to increase on a YOY basis, finishing up 25.4%. Broiler imports remain at insignificant levels relative to export volumes, with Dec ’15 imports amounting to only 2.8% of export volumes. Declining broiler exports, coupled with increasing imports, resulted in Dec ’15 net broiler trade declining YOY for the 14th time in the past 15 months, finishing down 15.8% to an eight year low for the month of December. Net broiler trade declined 10.9% throughout the ’14-’15 production season and is down an additional 17.0% throughout the first quarter of the ’15-’16 production season.
U.S. broiler export volumes have strengthened considerably over the past 25 years, increasing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.3%. U.S. broiler import volumes have increased at a CAGR of 21.6% over the same time period but remain significantly lower. ’13-’14 annual broiler exports volumes were over 60 times as large as import volumes. Broiler export volumes remained 54 times as large as import volumes throughout the ’14-’15 production season despite declining to a five year low on an absolute basis.
Combined net trade of U.S. pork, beef and broilers increased YOY for the second consecutive month as increases in the net trade of pork and beef more than offset a decline in broiler net trade. Combined net trade of pork, beef and broilers had declined for 19 consecutive months from Apr ’14 – Oct ’15 and finished down 21.4% YOY throughout the ’14-’15 production season.
U.S. pork export volumes have strengthened considerably over the past 25 years, increasing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.2%, while U.S. pork imports have remained fairly flat, increasing at a CAGR of 0.3% over the same time period. ’13-’14 annual pork imports experienced much stronger growth, finishing 10.5% higher than the previous year, the largest YOY percentage gain in 11 years. Despite the increase in pork imports, ’13-’14 annual pork exports volumes remained over five times as large as import volumes. Pork export volumes remained over four times as large as import volumes throughout the ’14-’15 production season despite declining to a five year low on an absolute basis.
Beef & Veal – Net Trade Finishes Positive for Second Consecutive Month
Dec ’15 U.S. beef & veal export volumes remained weak, declining 7.5% YOY and 6.2% MOM on a daily average basis. Beef & veal export volumes have declined YOY for 15 consecutive months through December. Of the major export destinations, YOY declines in export volumes were led by Japan (-17.3%), followed by combined volumes to Hong Kong, Taiwan and China (-17.0%), Mexico (-8.4%) and Canada (-2.7%). Export volumes to South Korea increased YOY for the second consecutive month, finishing 8.6% above the previous year. U.S. beef & veal exports to the aforementioned countries accounted for over 85% of all beef & veal export volumes in Dec ’15.
Dec ’15 U.S. beef & veal imports remained weak, declining by 35.2% YOY and 4.9% MOM on a daily average basis to a new 23 month low. Beef & veal import volumes had increased YOY for 19 consecutive months prior to the declines experienced in the most recent three months, exceeding export volumes by 38.6% over the period. The YOY decline in beef & veal imports outweighed the decline in export volumes, resulting in Dec ’15 net beef & veal trade finishing at a positive value for the second consecutive month. Net beef & veal trade had finished negative for 20 consecutive months from Mar ’14 – Oct ’15.
’13-’14 annual U.S. beef & veal imports finished higher than annual U.S. beef & veal exports for the first time in four years. This trend continued into the ’14-’15 production season as annual imports increased to a ten year high and beef & veal net trade declined to a new eight year low.
Chicken –Net Trade Declines to an Eight Year Low for the Month of December
Dec ’15 U.S. broiler export volumes remained weak, declining 15.0% YOY and 6.4% MOM on a daily average basis to a new four and a half year low. Monthly export volumes have declined YOY throughout 14 of the past 15 months as demand from several major U.S. broiler import markets remain weak. Combined broiler export volumes to Hong Kong, Taiwan and China finished down 30.2% YOY while broiler export volumes to Canada declined 5.8% YOY. Shipments to Mexico increased YOY for the second consecutive month, however, finishing up 6.4%. Broiler export volumes to Mexico have accounted for over a quarter of the total broiler export volumes during Dec ’15.
Dec ’15 U.S. broiler imports continued to increase on a YOY basis, finishing up 25.4%. Broiler imports remain at insignificant levels relative to export volumes, with Dec ’15 imports amounting to only 2.8% of export volumes. Declining broiler exports, coupled with increasing imports, resulted in Dec ’15 net broiler trade declining YOY for the 14th time in the past 15 months, finishing down 15.8% to an eight year low for the month of December. Net broiler trade declined 10.9% throughout the ’14-’15 production season and is down an additional 17.0% throughout the first quarter of the ’15-’16 production season.
U.S. broiler export volumes have strengthened considerably over the past 25 years, increasing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.3%. U.S. broiler import volumes have increased at a CAGR of 21.6% over the same time period but remain significantly lower. ’13-’14 annual broiler exports volumes were over 60 times as large as import volumes. Broiler export volumes remained 54 times as large as import volumes throughout the ’14-’15 production season despite declining to a five year low on an absolute basis.
Combined net trade of U.S. pork, beef and broilers increased YOY for the second consecutive month as increases in the net trade of pork and beef more than offset a decline in broiler net trade. Combined net trade of pork, beef and broilers had declined for 19 consecutive months from Apr ’14 – Oct ’15 and finished down 21.4% YOY throughout the ’14-’15 production season.