U.S. Milk Production Projected Slightly Higher for 2016 –…
According to the April USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report, the 2016 U.S. milk production projection was raised on a slower than anticipated reduction in the cow inventory and slightly faster growth in per cow productivity. 2016 projected milk production of 211.8 billion pounds was raised by 0.2 billion pounds from the lowest projection of the year experienced during the previous month. 2016 projected production translates to a 1.5% increase from the 2015 production levels, which remains slightly below the ten year average growth rate.
The milk-fat export forecast was raised from the previous month however an increase to the milk-fat import forecast more than offset the increase in forecasted export volumes, reducing forecasted net trade. Skim-solid export and import forecasts were lowered based on the pace of trade to date. The projected 2016 U.S. dairy export volumes translated to 13.8% of total U.S. milk solids production while import volumes were equivalent to 4.0% of total U.S. milk solids production. Projected 2016 U.S. dairy export volumes were slightly higher than the 11 month low experienced in Mar ’16, while projected import volumes reached a new 12 month high.
Butter and nonfat dry milk (NFDM) price forecasts were reduced from last month on relatively large supplies and continued pressure from weak international prices while cheese and whey prices were unchanged at the midpoint. The 2016 Class III price estimate was unchanged at the midpoint, finishing at $13.65-$14.15/cwt as cheese and whey prices were unchanged, while the 2016 Class IV price estimate was reduced by $0.20/cwt at the midpoint to $12.90-$13.50/cwt on declines in projected butter and NFDM prices. The 2016 All-Milk price forecast of $15.00-$15.50/cwt was unchanged at the midpoint, remaining below 2015 forecasted prices on both ends of the forecast for the seventh consecutive month. The 2016 projected All-Milk price translates to a 10.7% reduction from 2015 price levels.
The milk-fat export forecast was raised from the previous month however an increase to the milk-fat import forecast more than offset the increase in forecasted export volumes, reducing forecasted net trade. Skim-solid export and import forecasts were lowered based on the pace of trade to date. The projected 2016 U.S. dairy export volumes translated to 13.8% of total U.S. milk solids production while import volumes were equivalent to 4.0% of total U.S. milk solids production. Projected 2016 U.S. dairy export volumes were slightly higher than the 11 month low experienced in Mar ’16, while projected import volumes reached a new 12 month high.
Butter and nonfat dry milk (NFDM) price forecasts were reduced from last month on relatively large supplies and continued pressure from weak international prices while cheese and whey prices were unchanged at the midpoint. The 2016 Class III price estimate was unchanged at the midpoint, finishing at $13.65-$14.15/cwt as cheese and whey prices were unchanged, while the 2016 Class IV price estimate was reduced by $0.20/cwt at the midpoint to $12.90-$13.50/cwt on declines in projected butter and NFDM prices. The 2016 All-Milk price forecast of $15.00-$15.50/cwt was unchanged at the midpoint, remaining below 2015 forecasted prices on both ends of the forecast for the seventh consecutive month. The 2016 projected All-Milk price translates to a 10.7% reduction from 2015 price levels.