EU-28 Milk Production Update – Jul ’16
Executive Summary
EU-28 milk production figures provided by Eurostat were recently updated with values spanning through May ’16. Highlights from the updated report include:
• EU-28 milk production increased on a YOY basis for the 14th consecutive month during May ’16, finishing up 0.8%, however the YOY growth rate was the lowest experienced throughout the period.
• YOY production gains continue to be led by the Netherlands, followed by Ireland and Germany, while production continued to decline on a YOY basis within France and the United Kingdom during May ’16.
• Production remained higher on a YOY basis despite slaughter rates continuing to increase. Apr ’16 EU-28 bovine slaughter rates increased on a YOY basis for the ninth time in the past 11 months, finishing up 3.9%.
Additional Report Details
According to Eurostat, May ’16 EU-28 milk production increased YOY for the 14th consecutive month, finishing 0.8% above the previous year and setting a new monthly production record. The recent YOY increases in production have corresponded with the expiration of the EU-28 milk production quota system at the end of Mar ’15.
Monthly production growth had decelerated throughout the final months of the ’14-’15 production season as over-quota producers attempted to limit superlevy penalties for exceeding milk production quota levels. EU-28 milk production growth declined on a YOY basis from Jan ’15 – Mar ’15 but rebounded throughout the ’15-’16 production season in the post-quota environment. The May ’16 YOY growth rate of 0.8% was the lowest experienced in the past 14 months but is in addition to the post-quota production levels experienced during May ’15. Overall, annual ’15-’16 EU-28 milk production finished 3.9% higher YOY during the first year in the post-quota production environment.
YOY increases in production continue to be led by the Netherlands (+97,000 MT), followed by Ireland (+44,170 MT) and Germany (+30,730 MT). The aforementioned countries accounted for over a third of the total monthly EU-28 milk production and the vast majority of the YOY production gains experienced during May ’16. Milk production within France and the United Kingdom declined on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month during May ’16, finishing down 1.8% and 4.8%, respectively. YOY increases in production on a percentage basis were led by Cyprus (+29.0%), followed by Luxembourg (+10.7%) and the Czech Republic (+10.6%) while declines on a percentage basis were most significant in Slovakia (-6.2%), Portugal (-5.6%) and Croatia (-5.3%).
Only five of the ten top milk producing Member States experienced YOY gains in milk production during May ’16, finishing higher by a weighted average of 0.7% throughout the month. The top ten EU-28 milk producing Member States accounted for over 85% of the total EU-28 milk production throughout the month. Overall, 16 of the 28 member states experienced YOY increases in production volumes during May ’16.
Apr ’16 EU-28 beef & dairy cow slaughter declined 1.8% MOM on a daily average basis but increased on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month, finishing up 3.9%. YOY increases in beef & dairy cow slaughter were led by Poland, followed by Germany and the Netherlands.
EU-28 bovine slaughter rates increased sharply prior to quota expiration, finishing up 9.9% YOY in Mar ‘15 as producers attempted to limit superlevy penalties. Bovine slaughter has finished higher on a YOY basis over nine of the past 11 months through Apr ’16. USDA expects the EU-28 dairy cow herd to be marginally lower throughout 2016 but recent culling is expected to have a positive impact on future per cow productivity as lower producing animals are culled. Total EU-28 beef & dairy cow slaughter finished 1.3% higher YOY throughout the ’15-’16 production season.
Monthly production growth had decelerated throughout the final months of the ’14-’15 production season as over-quota producers attempted to limit superlevy penalties for exceeding milk production quota levels. EU-28 milk production growth declined on a YOY basis from Jan ’15 – Mar ’15 but rebounded throughout the ’15-’16 production season in the post-quota environment. The May ’16 YOY growth rate of 0.8% was the lowest experienced in the past 14 months but is in addition to the post-quota production levels experienced during May ’15. Overall, annual ’15-’16 EU-28 milk production finished 3.9% higher YOY during the first year in the post-quota production environment.
YOY increases in production continue to be led by the Netherlands (+97,000 MT), followed by Ireland (+44,170 MT) and Germany (+30,730 MT). The aforementioned countries accounted for over a third of the total monthly EU-28 milk production and the vast majority of the YOY production gains experienced during May ’16. Milk production within France and the United Kingdom declined on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month during May ’16, finishing down 1.8% and 4.8%, respectively. YOY increases in production on a percentage basis were led by Cyprus (+29.0%), followed by Luxembourg (+10.7%) and the Czech Republic (+10.6%) while declines on a percentage basis were most significant in Slovakia (-6.2%), Portugal (-5.6%) and Croatia (-5.3%).
Only five of the ten top milk producing Member States experienced YOY gains in milk production during May ’16, finishing higher by a weighted average of 0.7% throughout the month. The top ten EU-28 milk producing Member States accounted for over 85% of the total EU-28 milk production throughout the month. Overall, 16 of the 28 member states experienced YOY increases in production volumes during May ’16.
Apr ’16 EU-28 beef & dairy cow slaughter declined 1.8% MOM on a daily average basis but increased on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month, finishing up 3.9%. YOY increases in beef & dairy cow slaughter were led by Poland, followed by Germany and the Netherlands.
EU-28 bovine slaughter rates increased sharply prior to quota expiration, finishing up 9.9% YOY in Mar ‘15 as producers attempted to limit superlevy penalties. Bovine slaughter has finished higher on a YOY basis over nine of the past 11 months through Apr ’16. USDA expects the EU-28 dairy cow herd to be marginally lower throughout 2016 but recent culling is expected to have a positive impact on future per cow productivity as lower producing animals are culled. Total EU-28 beef & dairy cow slaughter finished 1.3% higher YOY throughout the ’15-’16 production season.