U.S. Livestock Cold Storage Update – Aug ’16
Executive Summary
U.S. cold storage figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Jul ’16. Highlights from the updated report include:
• U.S. pork stocks remained lower on a YOY basis for the sixth consecutive month during Jul ’16 but remained within 10% of historical maximum storage levels for the month of July.
• U.S. beef and chicken stocks each finished higher on a YOY basis during Jul ’16, increasing to ten and 14 year highs for the month of July, respectively.
• Jul ’16 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken remained 4.0% below the monthly record high experienced in Oct ’15 but finished at a record high seasonal level for the month of July.
Additional Report Details
Pork – Stocks Decline on a YOY Basis for the Sixth Consecutive Month, Finish Down 5.3%
According to USDA, Jul ’16 U.S. frozen pork stocks of 599.9 million pounds increased 2.3% MOM from the six month low experienced during Jun ’16 but remained lower on a YOY basis, finishing down 5.3%. Pork stocks have finished lower on a YOY basis for six consecutive months through June. The MOM increase in pork stocks of 13.5 million pounds was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average June – July seasonal decline in stocks of 20.3 million pounds. Pork stocks had declined seasonally from June – July over nine consecutive years prior to the contraseasonal increase experienced during Jul ’16. Despite remaining lower on a YOY basis, Jul ’16 pork stocks finished 5.2% above three year average figures for the month of July.
Beef – Stocks Reach a Ten Year High for the Month of July, Finish up 2.0% YOY
Jul ’16 U.S. frozen beef stocks of 469.3 million pounds increased 2.8% MOM and 2.0% YOY, finishing at a ten year high for the month of July. The MOM increase in beef stocks of 12.7 million pounds was larger than the ten year average June – July seasonal increase in stocks of 4.6 million pounds while the YOY increase in beef stocks was the first experienced in the past six months. Jul ’16 beef stocks finished 9.1% higher than three year average figures for the month of July.
Chicken – Stocks Reach a 14 Year High for the Month of July, Finish up 6.9% YOY
Jul ’16 U.S. frozen chicken stocks of 819.2 million pounds increased 0.5% MOM and 6.9% YOY, finishing at a 14 year high for the month of July. Chicken stocks have increased on a YOY basis for 20 months in a row after nine consecutive months of YOY declines were experienced from Mar ’14 – Nov ’14. Stocks have built as the Russian import ban continues to negatively affect U.S. broiler exports. U.S. broiler export volumes have declined by 9.5% YOY since the ban was announced. Jul ’16 chicken stocks finished 17.1% higher than three year average figures for the month of July.
Overall, combined Jul ’16 U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks remained 4.0% below the monthly record high experienced in Oct ’15. Individually, Jul ’16 U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks each finished within 15% of historical maximum storage levels.
Jul ’16 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks finished at a record high seasonal storage level for the month of July. Pork and chicken stocks each finished within 10% of historical maximum storage levels for the month of July while beef stocks finished within 5% of historical July storage levels.
According to USDA, Jul ’16 U.S. frozen pork stocks of 599.9 million pounds increased 2.3% MOM from the six month low experienced during Jun ’16 but remained lower on a YOY basis, finishing down 5.3%. Pork stocks have finished lower on a YOY basis for six consecutive months through June. The MOM increase in pork stocks of 13.5 million pounds was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average June – July seasonal decline in stocks of 20.3 million pounds. Pork stocks had declined seasonally from June – July over nine consecutive years prior to the contraseasonal increase experienced during Jul ’16. Despite remaining lower on a YOY basis, Jul ’16 pork stocks finished 5.2% above three year average figures for the month of July.
Beef – Stocks Reach a Ten Year High for the Month of July, Finish up 2.0% YOY
Jul ’16 U.S. frozen beef stocks of 469.3 million pounds increased 2.8% MOM and 2.0% YOY, finishing at a ten year high for the month of July. The MOM increase in beef stocks of 12.7 million pounds was larger than the ten year average June – July seasonal increase in stocks of 4.6 million pounds while the YOY increase in beef stocks was the first experienced in the past six months. Jul ’16 beef stocks finished 9.1% higher than three year average figures for the month of July.
Chicken – Stocks Reach a 14 Year High for the Month of July, Finish up 6.9% YOY
Jul ’16 U.S. frozen chicken stocks of 819.2 million pounds increased 0.5% MOM and 6.9% YOY, finishing at a 14 year high for the month of July. Chicken stocks have increased on a YOY basis for 20 months in a row after nine consecutive months of YOY declines were experienced from Mar ’14 – Nov ’14. Stocks have built as the Russian import ban continues to negatively affect U.S. broiler exports. U.S. broiler export volumes have declined by 9.5% YOY since the ban was announced. Jul ’16 chicken stocks finished 17.1% higher than three year average figures for the month of July.
Overall, combined Jul ’16 U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks remained 4.0% below the monthly record high experienced in Oct ’15. Individually, Jul ’16 U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks each finished within 15% of historical maximum storage levels.
Jul ’16 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks finished at a record high seasonal storage level for the month of July. Pork and chicken stocks each finished within 10% of historical maximum storage levels for the month of July while beef stocks finished within 5% of historical July storage levels.