EIA Drilling Productivity Report Update – Dec ’16
According to the EIA’s December Drilling Productivity Report, U.S. oil output is expected to continue to decline through the end of 2016 but increase slightly during Jan ’17. The Drilling Productivity Report uses recent data on the total number of drilling rigs in operation, estimates of drilling productivity, and estimated changes in production from existing wells to provide estimated changes in oil production for the seven key regions shown below. The seven regions analyzed have accounted for 95% of domestic oil production growth from 2011-2013.
Dec ’16 production was revised 1.0% higher than the previous month figures but is expected to remain 29,000 barrels per day (bpd), or 0.6%, below Nov ’16 production levels. Jan ’17 production levels are expected to increase 1,000 bpd from the Dec ’16 revised production levels to 4.54 million bpd, finishing higher for the first time in six months. Despite finishing higher on a MOM basis, Jan ’17 production forecasts would remain 11.3% below previous year levels, however.
Projected MOM declines in oil production had been exhibited over 11 of the past 12 months prior to the slight increase projected to occur in Jan ’17. Projected declines in oil production have decelerated since Aug ’16.
Oil production is expected to remain strong within the Permian region, more than offsetting continued declines in production within the Eagle Ford and Bakken regions. Production within the Permian region is expected to increase 37,000 bpd (1.8%), more than offsetting a 23,000 bpd (2.3%) decline in production within the Eagle Ford region and a 13,000 bpd (1.4%) decline in production within the Bakken region.
Dec ’16 production was revised 1.0% higher than the previous month figures but is expected to remain 29,000 barrels per day (bpd), or 0.6%, below Nov ’16 production levels. Jan ’17 production levels are expected to increase 1,000 bpd from the Dec ’16 revised production levels to 4.54 million bpd, finishing higher for the first time in six months. Despite finishing higher on a MOM basis, Jan ’17 production forecasts would remain 11.3% below previous year levels, however.
Projected MOM declines in oil production had been exhibited over 11 of the past 12 months prior to the slight increase projected to occur in Jan ’17. Projected declines in oil production have decelerated since Aug ’16.
Oil production is expected to remain strong within the Permian region, more than offsetting continued declines in production within the Eagle Ford and Bakken regions. Production within the Permian region is expected to increase 37,000 bpd (1.8%), more than offsetting a 23,000 bpd (2.3%) decline in production within the Eagle Ford region and a 13,000 bpd (1.4%) decline in production within the Bakken region.