US Dairy Dry Product Stocks Update – Feb ’18
Executive Summary
U.S. dairy dry product stock figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Dec ’17. Highlights from the updated report include:
Dec ’17 month-end dry whey stocks declined 1.9% MOM but remained 49.8% higher YOY, finishing at a record seasonal high for the month of December. Overall, dry whey stocks finished at the fourth largest monthly figure on record. Dry whey production declined 1.5% MOM on a daily average throughout Dec ’17, contributing to the decline in stocks. The MOM build in dry whey stocks of 13.7 million pounds, or 1.9%, was larger than the ten year average November – December seasonal build in dry whey stocks of 6.2 million pounds, or 1.0%.
On a days of usage basis, Dec ’17 U.S. dry whey stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12 month rolling average YOY usage rates and known stock values for the month of December, dry whey stocks on a days of usage basis finished up 26.8% YOY.
Nonfat Dry Milk – Stocks Increase to a Record Monthly High, Finish up 46.5% YOY
Dec ’17 month-end nonfat dry milk (NFDM) stocks increased 4.2% MOM from the Nov ’17 revised figure will also remaining up 46.5% YOY, finishing at a new monthly record high figure. Nov ’17 stock figures were revised 5.1% higher than previously stated, finishing at the third highest figure on record. NFDM stocks have finished higher on a YOY basis over 11 consecutive months through December. The MOM build in NFDM stocks of 13.3 million pounds, or 4.2%, was significantly smaller than the ten year average November – December seasonal build in NFDM stocks of 20.3 million pounds, or 14.5%, however, partially due to the upward revision to the November figures. NFDM production increased 11.0% MOM on a daily average basis throughout Dec ’17, contributing to the seasonal build in stocks.
On a days of usage basis, Dec ’17 U.S. NFDM stocks also remained higher on a YOY basis. When assuming 12 month rolling average YOY usage rates and known stock values for the month of December, NFDM stocks on a days of usage basis finished up 47.9% YOY.
- Dec ’17 U.S. dry whey stocks remained at a record high seasonal level, finishing 49.8% above the previous year volumes. Overall, dry whey stocks finished at the fourth largest monthly figure on record.
- Dec ’17 U.S. nonfat dry milk stocks increased to a new monthly record high, finishing 46.5% above the previous year volumes. Nonfat dry milk stocks have finished higher on a YOY basis over 11 consecutive months through December, however the November – December seasonal build in stocks was smaller than historical averages.
Dec ’17 month-end dry whey stocks declined 1.9% MOM but remained 49.8% higher YOY, finishing at a record seasonal high for the month of December. Overall, dry whey stocks finished at the fourth largest monthly figure on record. Dry whey production declined 1.5% MOM on a daily average throughout Dec ’17, contributing to the decline in stocks. The MOM build in dry whey stocks of 13.7 million pounds, or 1.9%, was larger than the ten year average November – December seasonal build in dry whey stocks of 6.2 million pounds, or 1.0%.
On a days of usage basis, Dec ’17 U.S. dry whey stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12 month rolling average YOY usage rates and known stock values for the month of December, dry whey stocks on a days of usage basis finished up 26.8% YOY.
Nonfat Dry Milk – Stocks Increase to a Record Monthly High, Finish up 46.5% YOY
Dec ’17 month-end nonfat dry milk (NFDM) stocks increased 4.2% MOM from the Nov ’17 revised figure will also remaining up 46.5% YOY, finishing at a new monthly record high figure. Nov ’17 stock figures were revised 5.1% higher than previously stated, finishing at the third highest figure on record. NFDM stocks have finished higher on a YOY basis over 11 consecutive months through December. The MOM build in NFDM stocks of 13.3 million pounds, or 4.2%, was significantly smaller than the ten year average November – December seasonal build in NFDM stocks of 20.3 million pounds, or 14.5%, however, partially due to the upward revision to the November figures. NFDM production increased 11.0% MOM on a daily average basis throughout Dec ’17, contributing to the seasonal build in stocks.
On a days of usage basis, Dec ’17 U.S. NFDM stocks also remained higher on a YOY basis. When assuming 12 month rolling average YOY usage rates and known stock values for the month of December, NFDM stocks on a days of usage basis finished up 47.9% YOY.