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U.S. Livestock & Meat Trade Update – May ’18

  • May 7, 2018
  • by Belinda Przybylski
Executive Summary U.S. livestock and meat trade figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Mar ’18. Highlights from the updated report include:
  • Mar ’18 net pork trade increased on a YOY basis for the seventh consecutive month, finishing up 4.2%. Pork export volumes increased on a YOY basis for the 22nd time in the past 23 months, finishing at a record seasonal high for the month of March.
  • Net beef & veal trade finished at a positive level for the sixth time in the past seven months during Mar ’18 as export volumes reached a record seasonal high for the month of March.
  • Net broiler trade declined on a YOY basis for the third time in the past four months during Mar ’18, finishing down 0.4%.
Additional Report Details Pork – Exports Increase to a Record Seasonal High, Net Trade Finishes up 4.2% YOY According to USDA, Mar ’18 U.S. pork export volumes increased 2.7% YOY, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the 22nd time in the past 23 months. Overall, pork export volumes reached a record seasonal high for the month of March, finishing 12.7% above three year average seasonal figures. Of the major export destinations, YOY increases in export volumes on an absolute basis were led by shipments destined to South Korea (+41.0%). U.S. pork export volumes destined to Japan (-13.4%), Mexico (-4.2%), China, Hong Kong and Taiwan (-10.0%) and Canada (-9.3%) all finished lower throughout the month. U.S. pork export volumes destined to the aforementioned countries accounted for over 80% of all pork export volumes during Mar ’18. U.S. pork import volumes declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past 12 months during Mar ’18, finishing down 3.5%. The increase in pork export volumes, coupled with the decline in import volumes, resulted in Mar ’18 U.S. net pork trade finishing up 4.2% YOY. The monthly YOY increase in net pork trade was the seventh experienced in a row. ’16-’17 annual net pork trade finishing up 13.1% YOY, reaching a five year high, while ’17-’18 YTD net trade is up an additional 6.2% throughout the first half of the production season. Recently announced tariffs on U.S. pork exports destined to China could impact export volumes going forward. China announced an additional 25% tariff on pork imports originating from within the U.S. during early Apr ’18. China has accounted for approximately seven percent of total U.S. pork export volumes throughout the past 12 months. Beef & Veal – Exports Increase to a Record Seasonal High, Net Trade Remains Slightly Positive Mar ’18 U.S. beef export volumes increased 11.4% YOY, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the 21st consecutive month. Overall, beef export volumes reached a record seasonal high for the month of March, finishing 28.8% above three year average seasonal figures. Of the major export destinations, YOY increases in export volumes on an absolute basis were led by shipments destined to South Korea (+38.0%), followed by shipments destined to China, Hong Kong and Taiwan (+25.4%) and Japan (+1.6%). U.S. beef export volumes destined to South Korea, China and Japan more than offset declines in export volumes destined to Canada (-14.2%) and Mexico (-6.8%). U.S. beef & veal export volumes destined to the aforementioned countries accounted for over 85% of all beef & veal export volumes during Mar ’18. Mar ’18 U.S. beef & veal import volumes declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past four months, finishing down 6.0%. The increase in beef & veal export volumes, coupled with the decline in import volumes, contributed to net beef & veal trade remaining at a positive level for the sixth time in the past seven months. ’16-’17 annual beef & veal net trade finished at a negative level for the fourth consecutive year, despite export volumes reaching a record annual high, however ’17-’18 YTD net trade is up 135.1% YOY throughout the first half of the production season. Broilers – Net Trade Declines YOY for the Third Time in the Past Four Months, Finishes Down 0.4% Mar ’18 U.S. broiler export volumes declined 0.1% YOY, finishing lower for the third time in the past four months. Broiler export volumes remained 3.8% above three year average seasonal figures for the month of March, however. Export volumes destined to China, Hong Kong and Taiwan (+46.1%), Georgia (+881.4%) and Vietnam (+35.1%) finished most significantly higher on an absolute basis throughout the month. YOY declines in broiler export volumes were led by shipments destined to South Africa (-35.1%), Turkey (-58.8%) and Mexico (-5.8%). U.S. broiler import volumes increased on a YOY basis for the third time in the past four months during Mar ’18, finishing up 15.7%. Broiler import volumes remain at insignificant levels relative to export volumes, however, as Mar ’18 imports amounted to just 2.0% of export volumes. The YOY decline in broiler export volumes, coupled with the YOY increase in import volumes, resulted in U.S. broiler net trade finishing down 0.4% YOY during Mar ’18. The YOY decline in net broiler trade was the third experienced throughout the past four months. ’16-’17 annual net broiler trade finished up 5.0% YOY to a three year high, while ’17-’18 YTD net trade remains up an additional 1.9% throughout the first half of the production season, despite the most recent YOY decline. Overall, combined net trade of U.S. pork, beef and broilers finished higher on a YOY basis for the fifth time in the past six months, increasing by 56.4 million pounds, or 5.9%. YOY increase in net trade of pork and beef more than offset a slight YOY decline in the net trade of broilers experienced throughout the month.
Atten Babler Meat FX Indices – May ’18
U.S. Livestock Cold Storage Update – May ’18
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