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U.S. Livestock & Meat Trade Update – Jul ’18

  • July 9, 2018
  • by Belinda Przybylski
Executive Summary U.S. livestock and meat trade figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through May ’18. Highlights from the updated report include:
  • May ’18 U.S. net pork trade increased on a YOY basis for the eighth consecutive month, finishing up 0.6%. Pork export volumes increased on a YOY basis for the 24th time in the past 25 months, finishing at a record seasonal high for the month of May.
  • May ’18 U.S. beef & veal export volumes increased to a new monthly record high figure, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the 23rd consecutive month. Net beef & veal trade finished at a negative level for the first time in the past four months, however, despite the record high export volumes.
  • U.S. net broiler trade declined 4.2% YOY during May ’18 as export volumes declined to an eight year seasonal low for the month of May. The YOY decline in net broiler trade was the largest experienced throughout the past five months.
Additional Report Details Pork – Exports Remain at a Record Seasonal High, Net Trade Finishes up 0.6% YOY According to USDA, May ’18 U.S. pork export volumes declined from the monthly record high level experienced during Apr ’18 but remained higher on a YOY basis, increasing 0.3% to a new record seasonal high for the month of May. Pork export volumes have finished higher on a YOY basis over 24 of the past 25 months through May ’18. Of the major export destinations, YOY increases in export volumes were led by shipments destined to South Korea, followed by shipments destined to Mexico. U.S. pork export volumes destined to China, Hong Kong and Taiwan, Japan and Canada finished lower throughout the month. U.S. pork export volumes destined to the aforementioned countries accounted for 80% of all pork export volumes during May ’18. U.S. pork import volumes declined on a YOY basis for just the second time in the past 14 months during May ’18, finishing down 1.0%. The decline in pork import volumes, coupled with the increase in export volumes, resulted in May ’18 U.S. net pork trade finishing up 0.6% YOY. The monthly YOY increase in net pork trade was the eighth experienced in a row. ’16-’17 annual net pork trade finishing up 13.1% YOY, reaching a five year high, while ’17-’18 YTD net trade is up an additional 7.3% throughout the first two thirds of the production season. Recently announced tariffs on U.S. pork exports destined to China could impact export volumes going forward. China announced an additional 25% tariff on pork imports originating from within the U.S. during early May ’18. U.S. pork exports destined to China, Hong Kong and Taiwan declined 44.5% on a YOY basis throughout May ’18. China accounted for approximately seven percent of the total U.S. pork export volumes experienced throughout the 12 month period leading up the announcement of the additional pork tariffs. Beef & Veal – Exports Increase to a Monthly Record High However Net Trade Finishes Negative May ’18 U.S. beef export volumes increased 20.7% YOY, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the 23rd consecutive month and reaching a new monthly record high figure. YOY increases in export volumes were widespread across major export destinations and led by shipments destined to South Korea, followed by shipments destined to Japan, Canada, China, Hong Kong and Taiwan and Mexico. U.S. beef & veal export volumes destined to the aforementioned countries accounted for over 85% of all beef & veal export volumes during May ’18. May ’18 U.S. beef & veal import volumes increased on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three months, finishing up 3.9%. Beef & veal import volumes slightly outpaced beef & veal export volumes experienced throughout the month, resulting in net beef & veal trade finishing at a negative level for the first time in the past four months. ’16-’17 annual beef & veal net trade finished at a negative level for the fourth consecutive year, despite export volumes reaching a record annual high, however ’17-’18 YTD net trade has remained at a positive level throughout the first two thirds of the production season, despite May ’18 net trade finishing negative. Broilers – Exports Decline to an Eight Year Seasonal Low, Net Trade Finishes Down 4.2% YOY May ’18 U.S. broiler export volumes declined 4.3% YOY, finishing lower for the fourth time in the past six months. Broiler export volumes declined to an eight year seasonal low for the month of May, finishing 4.0% below three year average seasonal figures. Export volumes destined to Kazakhstan, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates finished most significantly lower on an absolute basis throughout the month. YOY increase in broiler export volumes were led by shipments destined to the Dominican Republic, Canada and Georgia. U.S. broiler import volumes declined on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month during May ’18, finishing down 9.4%. Broiler import volumes remain at insignificant levels relative to export volumes, as May ’18 imports amounted to just 2.0% of export volumes. The YOY decline in broiler export volumes more than offset the YOY decline in import volumes, resulting in U.S. broiler net trade finishing down 4.2% YOY during May ’18. The YOY decline in net broiler trade was the fourth experienced throughout the past six months and the largest experienced throughout the past five months. ’16-’17 annual net broiler trade finished up 5.1% YOY to a three year high, while ’17-’18 YTD net trade remains up an additional 2.2% throughout the first two thirds of the production season, despite the recently experienced declines. Overall, combined net trade of U.S. pork, beef and broilers finished higher on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month, increasing by 14.7 million pounds, or 1.6%. The YOY increase in combined net trade of pork, beef and broilers was the smallest experienced throughout the past four months, however.
Atten Babler Meat FX Indices – Jul ’18
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