Corn – ’18-’19 U.S. & Global Ending Stocks Above Private Estimates

• ’18-’19 U.S. ending stocks of 1.684 billion bushels above expectations
• ’18-’19 global ending stocks of 155.49 million MT above expectations

The ’18-’19 U.S. corn supply was projected higher on an increase in yields. The increase in the projected corn supply more than offset higher usage projections, which were increased on higher expected feed and residual usage and export demand. ’18-’19 projected U.S. corn ending stocks of 1.684 billion bushels, or 41.0 days of use, finished 8.5% above the previous month projection and 2.9% above expectations.

The ’18-’19 global corn ending stock projection finished 2.3% above the previous month projection and 1.9% above expectations. Global corn ending stock projections were driven higher by the expected increase in U.S. production, which more than offset a slight decline in total foreign projected production figures.

Soybeans – ’18-‘19 U.S. & Global Ending Stocks Significantly Above Private Estimates

• ’18-’19 U.S. ending stocks of 785 million bushels significantly above expectations
• ’18-’19 global ending stocks of 105.94 million MT significantly above expectations

The ’18-’19 U.S. soybean supply was also projected significantly higher on a substantial increase in yields, which more than offset lower projected beginning stocks. The increase in the projected soybean supply more than offset higher usage projections, which were increased on higher food, seed and industrial usage and export demand. ’18-’19 projected U.S. soybean ending stocks of 785 million bushels, or 67.3 days of use, finished 35.3% above the previous month projection and 23.0% above expectations.

The ’18-’19 global wheat ending stock projection finished 7.8% above the previous month projection and 6.7% above expectations. Global soybean ending stock projections were driven higher by the expected increase in U.S. production.

Wheat – ’18-’19 U.S. & Global Ending Stocks Mixed vs. Private Estimates

• ’18-’19 U.S. ending stocks of 935 million bushels below expectations
• ’18-’19 global ending stocks of 258.96 million MT slightly above expectations

The ’18-’19 U.S. wheat supply was projected slightly lower on a minor decline in yields. The decline in projected wheat supply, coupled with an increase in usage stemming primarily from raised export demand projections, resulted in projected stocks finishing below the previous month projection and expectations. ’18-’19 projected U.S. wheat ending stocks of 935 million bushels, or 156.8 days of use, finished 5.1% below the previous month projection and 2.7% below expectations.

The ’18-’19 global wheat ending stock projection finished 0.7% below the previous month projection but 1.0% above expectations. Global wheat ending stock projections were driven lower by an expected reduction in production experienced throughout the EU-28.

Ending Stocks vs. Expectations Summary

Overall, ’18-’19 projected U.S. soybean ending stocks finished most significantly above expectations while corn stocks also finished above expectations and wheat stocks finished lower. ’18-’19 projected global soybean stocks also finished most significantly above expectations while global corn and wheat ending stocks also finished above private estimates.