New Dairy Permits Update – Aug ’18
New Confined Animal Feeding Operation (CAFO) permits issued throughout the past six months suggest that some dairy producers will continue to expand their herds in months to come. CAFO permit figures are based on individual state data aggregated by Marin Bozic and published to the Program on Dairy Markets and Policy. The aggregated CAFO permit data is currently available from Feb ’18 to Jul ’18. New CAFO permits filed throughout the past six months suggest dairy producers could expand or build their milk cow herds by a total of over 70,000 cows. When also including reissues and modifications, the potential build in milk cow herd figures expands to over 80,000 cows. Issuances of permits does not guarantee the completion of a project, or that the entire permit will be utilized, so permit figures may not translate to a one-to-one increase of cows on the ground. Currently, CAFO permit data is being compiled for the states of California, Colorado, Iowa, Indiana, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Texas, Utah and Wisconsin. New milk cow CAFO permits, reissues and modifications filed within Texas have accounted for nearly half of all permits issued throughout the aforementioned states during the past six months. Minnesota, Colorado and South Dakota have also had large concentrations of new permit issues throughout the period. According to the Program on Dairy Markets and Policy, CAFO figures will continue to be compiled throughout months to come, with additional historical figures also becoming available. Additional figures will shed light on how CAFO permit applications correlate with a lagged change in milk cow herd numbers on both a state-by-state and national basis.