Executive Summary

U.S. dairy dry product stock figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Jul ’18. Highlights from the updated report include:

• Jul ’18 U.S. dry whey stocks rebounded to a five month high but remained 21.7% lower on a YOY basis, finishing lower for the fifth consecutive month.
• Jul ’18 U.S. nonfat dry milk stocks rebounded to a ten month high while also finishing 7.4% higher on a YOY basis. Nonfat dry milk stocks have finished higher on a YOY basis over 17 of the past 18 months through Jul ’18.

Additional Report Details

Dry Whey – Stocks Rebound to a Five Month High but Remain 21.7% Lower YOY

Jul ’18 month-end dry whey stocks increased 12.5% MOM to a five month high but remained lower on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month, finishing down 21.7%. Dry whey stocks finished 6.6% below three year average seasonal figures for the month of July, finishing below three year average figures for the fourth consecutive month. The MOM build in dry whey stocks of 8.6 million pounds, or 12.5%, was greater than the ten year average June – July seasonal build in dry whey stocks of 1.7 million pounds, or 2.5%, however. Stocks increased despite dry whey production declining on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month throughout Jul ’18, declining by 9.0%.

On a days of usage basis, Jul ’18 U.S. dry whey stocks also finished lower YOY. When assuming 12 month rolling average YOY usage rates and known stock values for the month of July, dry whey stocks on a days of usage basis finished down 25.4% YOY.

Nonfat Dry Milk – Stocks Rebound to a Ten Month High, Finish up 7.4% YOY

Jul ’18 month-end nonfat dry milk (NFDM) stocks increased 4.8% MOM to a ten month high while also finishing 7.4% higher on a YOY basis. The YOY increase in NFDM stocks was the 17^th experienced throughout the past 18 months. Overall, NFDM stocks reached a record seasonal high for the month of July and the second highest monthly figure on record. The MOM build in NFDM stocks of 14.4 million pounds, or 4.8%, was greater than the ten year average June – July seasonal build in NFDM stocks of 3.5 million pounds, or 1.7%. Stocks increased despite NFDM production declining on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month throughout Jul ’18, declining by 3.4%.

On a days of usage basis, Jul ’18 U.S. NFDM stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12 month rolling average YOY usage rates and known stock values for the month of July, NFDM stocks on a days of usage basis finished up 7.7% YOY.