U.S. Livestock Cold Storage Update – Aug ’19
Executive Summary
U.S. cold storage figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Jul ’19. Highlights from the updated report include:
According to USDA, Jul ’19 U.S. frozen pork stocks declined seasonally to a six month low level but remained 9.0% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a four year seasonal high. The YOY increase in pork stocks was the third experienced in a row while the MOM decline in pork stocks of 17.7 million pounds, or 2.9%, was consistent with the ten year average June – July seasonal decline in stocks of 17.3 million pounds, or 3.3%.
Beef – Stocks Rebound Seasonally but Remain Down 6.0% YOY
Jul ’19 U.S. frozen beef stocks rebounded seasonally from the four and a half year low levels experienced throughout the previous month but remained lower on a YOY basis, declining by 6.0%. The Jul ’19 YOY decline in beef stocks was the fifth experienced in a row however the MOM increase in beef stocks of 49.5 million pounds, or 12.2%, was significantly greater than the ten year average June – July seasonal build in stocks of 3.4 million pounds, or 0.9%. The seasonal build in beef stocks was in addition to a 2.8% upward revision to previous month figures.
Chicken – Stocks Remain Lower on a YOY Basis for the Seventh Time in Eight Months, Finish Down 3.1%
Jul ’19 U.S. frozen chicken stocks rebounded 1.7% MOM to a three month high but remained lower on a YOY basis for the seventh time in the past eight months, finishing down 3.1%. Despite declining on a YOY basis, chicken stocks remained at the second highest seasonal level experienced throughout the past 17 years. The MOM increase in chicken stocks of 14.2 million pounds, or 1.7%, was consistent with the ten year average June – July seasonal build in stocks of 13.2 million pounds, or 2.0%.
Overall, Jul ’19 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks finished 7.2% below the Sep ’18 record high levels. Individually, Jul ’19 chicken and pork stocks finished within 13% and 15% of historical maximum storage levels, respectively, while beef stocks finished 20% below the highest monthly storage level on record.
Jul ’19 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks finished 0.3% below the record high July seasonal level experienced throughout 2018. Individually, Jul ’19 chicken and pork stocks finished within four percent and five percent of the record high July storage levels, respectively, while beef stocks finished six percent below record high historical seasonal levels.
- Jul ’19 U.S. pork stocks declined seasonally to a six month low level but remained 9.0% higher on a YOY basis, finishing at a four year seasonal high.
- Jul ’19 U.S. beef stocks rebounded seasonally from the four and a half year low levels experienced throughout the previous month but remained lower on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month, declining by 6.0%.
- Jul ’19 U.S. chicken stocks remained lower on a YOY basis for the seventh time in the past eight months, finishing down 3.1% but remaining at the second highest seasonal level experienced throughout the past 17 years.
According to USDA, Jul ’19 U.S. frozen pork stocks declined seasonally to a six month low level but remained 9.0% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a four year seasonal high. The YOY increase in pork stocks was the third experienced in a row while the MOM decline in pork stocks of 17.7 million pounds, or 2.9%, was consistent with the ten year average June – July seasonal decline in stocks of 17.3 million pounds, or 3.3%.
Beef – Stocks Rebound Seasonally but Remain Down 6.0% YOY
Jul ’19 U.S. frozen beef stocks rebounded seasonally from the four and a half year low levels experienced throughout the previous month but remained lower on a YOY basis, declining by 6.0%. The Jul ’19 YOY decline in beef stocks was the fifth experienced in a row however the MOM increase in beef stocks of 49.5 million pounds, or 12.2%, was significantly greater than the ten year average June – July seasonal build in stocks of 3.4 million pounds, or 0.9%. The seasonal build in beef stocks was in addition to a 2.8% upward revision to previous month figures.
Chicken – Stocks Remain Lower on a YOY Basis for the Seventh Time in Eight Months, Finish Down 3.1%
Jul ’19 U.S. frozen chicken stocks rebounded 1.7% MOM to a three month high but remained lower on a YOY basis for the seventh time in the past eight months, finishing down 3.1%. Despite declining on a YOY basis, chicken stocks remained at the second highest seasonal level experienced throughout the past 17 years. The MOM increase in chicken stocks of 14.2 million pounds, or 1.7%, was consistent with the ten year average June – July seasonal build in stocks of 13.2 million pounds, or 2.0%.
Overall, Jul ’19 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks finished 7.2% below the Sep ’18 record high levels. Individually, Jul ’19 chicken and pork stocks finished within 13% and 15% of historical maximum storage levels, respectively, while beef stocks finished 20% below the highest monthly storage level on record.
Jul ’19 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks finished 0.3% below the record high July seasonal level experienced throughout 2018. Individually, Jul ’19 chicken and pork stocks finished within four percent and five percent of the record high July storage levels, respectively, while beef stocks finished six percent below record high historical seasonal levels.