U.S. Livestock & Meat Trade Update – Oct ’19
Executive Summary
U.S. livestock and meat trade figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Aug ’19. Highlights from the updated report include:
Mexico and Japan have historically been the largest importers of U.S. pork products, accounting for over half of the total U.S. pork export volumes throughout the past five years. Combined U.S. pork export volumes destined to Mexico and Japan have declined on a YOY basis by 9.8% throughout the past 12 months, however. Throughout the past 12 months, YOY increases in U.S. pork exports have been led by product destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, followed by Australia, while shipments destined to Mexico and Japan have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.
U.S. pork import volumes remained lower on a YOY basis for the 15th consecutive month during Aug ’19, finishing down 3.7%. The decline in pork import volumes, coupled with the increase in pork export volumes, resulted in U.S. net pork trade finishing up 20.7% YOY during Aug ’19, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in net pork trade was the fourth experienced in a row and the second largest experienced throughout the past 16 months on a percentage basis. ’17-’18 annual net pork trade increased 8.0% YOY, finishing at a record high level, while ’18-’19 YTD net pork trade has increased an additional 5.3% YOY heading into the final month of the production season.
Beef & Veal – Exports Remain Lower YOY, Net Trade Finishes Negative
Aug ’19 U.S. beef & veal export volumes declined 9.4% YOY, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the eighth consecutive month. The YOY decline in beef export volumes was the largest experienced throughout the past three and a half years on a percentage basis. U.S. beef & veal export volumes had finished higher on a YOY basis over 30 consecutive months through the end of 2018, prior to declining on a YOY basis over the past eight months. Aug ’19 U.S. beef & veal export volumes reached a three year seasonal low level but remained 0.2% above three year average seasonal figures for the month of August. YOY declines in U.S. beef & veal export volumes were led by shipments destined to Japan, followed by shipments destined to Mexico and South Korea, while export volumes destined to Indonesia finished most significantly higher on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Japan, China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, South Korea, Mexico and Canada have historically been the largest importers of U.S. beef & veal products, combining to account for over 85% of the total U.S. beef & veal export volumes throughout the past five years. Throughout the past 12 months, U.S. beef & veal export volumes destined to South Korea have increased most significantly on a YOY basis, while shipments destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.
Aug ’19 U.S. beef & veal import volumes declined on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month, finishing down 2.4%. Beef & veal import volumes exceeded export volumes during Aug ’19, resulting in U.S. beef & veal trade finishing at a negative level for the first time in the past three months. ’17-’18 annual beef & veal net trade finished at a positive level for the first time in the past five years however ’18-’19 YTD beef & veal net trade has declined 58.9% on a YOY basis heading into the final month of the production season.
Broilers – Net Trade Declines YOY for the Second Time in Three Months, Finishes Down 2.7%
Aug ’19 U.S. broiler export volumes declined 3.0% YOY, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the fifth time in the past seven months. YOY declines in U.S. broiler export volumes were led by shipments destined to Iraq, Mexico and South Africa, while export volumes destined to Cuba and Georgia increased most significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Mexico has historically been the largest importer of U.S. broilers, accounting for over one fifth of the total U.S. broiler export volumes throughout the past five years. Throughout the past 12 months, U.S. broiler export volumes destined to Georgia have increased most significantly on a YOY basis, followed by volumes destined to Mexico, while shipments destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.
U.S. broiler import volumes declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three months during Aug ’19, finishing down 20.9%. Broiler import volumes remained at insignificant levels relative to export volumes, as Aug ’19 imports amounted to just 1.7% of export volumes. The YOY decline in broiler export volumes more than offset the YOY decline in broiler import volumes during Aug ’19, resulting in U.S. broiler net trade finishing down 2.7% YOY. The YOY decline in broiler net trade was the second experienced throughout the past three months and the largest experienced throughout the past four months on a percentage basis. ’17-’18 annual net broiler trade finished up 3.9% YOY, reaching a six year high, while ’18-’19 YTD net pork trade remains up an additional 1.9% YOY heading into the final month of the production season, despite the most recent YOY decline.
Combined Net Trade
Overall, combined net trade of U.S. pork, beef and broilers finished higher on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month during Aug ’19, increasing by 36.1 million pounds, or 3.8%, as the increase in pork net trade more than offset the declines in beef and broiler net trade. The YOY increase in combined net trade of pork, beef and broilers was the smallest experienced throughout the past four months on both an absolute and percentage basis, however.
- Aug ’19 U.S. net pork trade increased on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month, finishing up 20.7% to a record high seasonal level. Pork export volumes increased 16.2% on a YOY basis throughout the month, driven higher by growth in volumes destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan.
- Aug ’19 U.S. beef & veal export volumes declined on a YOY basis for the eighth consecutive month, finishing down 9.4%. Lower export volumes contributed to net beef trade finishing at a negative level for the first time in the past three months.
- U.S. net broiler trade declined 2.7% YOY during Aug ’19 as export volumes declined on a YOY basis for the fifth time in the past seven months.
Mexico and Japan have historically been the largest importers of U.S. pork products, accounting for over half of the total U.S. pork export volumes throughout the past five years. Combined U.S. pork export volumes destined to Mexico and Japan have declined on a YOY basis by 9.8% throughout the past 12 months, however. Throughout the past 12 months, YOY increases in U.S. pork exports have been led by product destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, followed by Australia, while shipments destined to Mexico and Japan have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.
U.S. pork import volumes remained lower on a YOY basis for the 15th consecutive month during Aug ’19, finishing down 3.7%. The decline in pork import volumes, coupled with the increase in pork export volumes, resulted in U.S. net pork trade finishing up 20.7% YOY during Aug ’19, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in net pork trade was the fourth experienced in a row and the second largest experienced throughout the past 16 months on a percentage basis. ’17-’18 annual net pork trade increased 8.0% YOY, finishing at a record high level, while ’18-’19 YTD net pork trade has increased an additional 5.3% YOY heading into the final month of the production season.
Beef & Veal – Exports Remain Lower YOY, Net Trade Finishes Negative
Aug ’19 U.S. beef & veal export volumes declined 9.4% YOY, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the eighth consecutive month. The YOY decline in beef export volumes was the largest experienced throughout the past three and a half years on a percentage basis. U.S. beef & veal export volumes had finished higher on a YOY basis over 30 consecutive months through the end of 2018, prior to declining on a YOY basis over the past eight months. Aug ’19 U.S. beef & veal export volumes reached a three year seasonal low level but remained 0.2% above three year average seasonal figures for the month of August. YOY declines in U.S. beef & veal export volumes were led by shipments destined to Japan, followed by shipments destined to Mexico and South Korea, while export volumes destined to Indonesia finished most significantly higher on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Japan, China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, South Korea, Mexico and Canada have historically been the largest importers of U.S. beef & veal products, combining to account for over 85% of the total U.S. beef & veal export volumes throughout the past five years. Throughout the past 12 months, U.S. beef & veal export volumes destined to South Korea have increased most significantly on a YOY basis, while shipments destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.
Aug ’19 U.S. beef & veal import volumes declined on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month, finishing down 2.4%. Beef & veal import volumes exceeded export volumes during Aug ’19, resulting in U.S. beef & veal trade finishing at a negative level for the first time in the past three months. ’17-’18 annual beef & veal net trade finished at a positive level for the first time in the past five years however ’18-’19 YTD beef & veal net trade has declined 58.9% on a YOY basis heading into the final month of the production season.
Broilers – Net Trade Declines YOY for the Second Time in Three Months, Finishes Down 2.7%
Aug ’19 U.S. broiler export volumes declined 3.0% YOY, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the fifth time in the past seven months. YOY declines in U.S. broiler export volumes were led by shipments destined to Iraq, Mexico and South Africa, while export volumes destined to Cuba and Georgia increased most significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month.
Mexico has historically been the largest importer of U.S. broilers, accounting for over one fifth of the total U.S. broiler export volumes throughout the past five years. Throughout the past 12 months, U.S. broiler export volumes destined to Georgia have increased most significantly on a YOY basis, followed by volumes destined to Mexico, while shipments destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.
U.S. broiler import volumes declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three months during Aug ’19, finishing down 20.9%. Broiler import volumes remained at insignificant levels relative to export volumes, as Aug ’19 imports amounted to just 1.7% of export volumes. The YOY decline in broiler export volumes more than offset the YOY decline in broiler import volumes during Aug ’19, resulting in U.S. broiler net trade finishing down 2.7% YOY. The YOY decline in broiler net trade was the second experienced throughout the past three months and the largest experienced throughout the past four months on a percentage basis. ’17-’18 annual net broiler trade finished up 3.9% YOY, reaching a six year high, while ’18-’19 YTD net pork trade remains up an additional 1.9% YOY heading into the final month of the production season, despite the most recent YOY decline.
Combined Net Trade
Overall, combined net trade of U.S. pork, beef and broilers finished higher on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month during Aug ’19, increasing by 36.1 million pounds, or 3.8%, as the increase in pork net trade more than offset the declines in beef and broiler net trade. The YOY increase in combined net trade of pork, beef and broilers was the smallest experienced throughout the past four months on both an absolute and percentage basis, however.