U.S. Livestock Cold Storage Update – Oct ’19
Executive Summary
U.S. cold storage figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Sep ’19. Highlights from the updated report include:
According to USDA, Sep ’19 U.S. frozen pork stocks declined contraseasonally to an eight month low level but remained 1.6% higher on a YOY basis. Pork stocks have finished higher on a YOY basis over five consecutive months through September. The MOM decline in pork stocks of 7.9 million pounds, or 1.3%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average August – September seasonal build in stocks of 24.0 million pounds, or 4.7%. The August – September decline in pork stocks was the largest experienced throughout the past 19 years. Pork stocks have declined contraseasonally throughout each of the past two months.
Beef – Stocks Decline Contraseasonally, Finish at a Five Year Low Seasonal Level
Sep ’19 U.S. frozen beef stocks remained lower on a YOY basis for the seventh consecutive month, finishing down 8.5% and reaching a five year low seasonal level. The MOM decline in beef stocks of 5.7 million pounds, or 1.2%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average August – September seasonal build in stocks of 15.2 million pounds, or 3.5%. The August – September decline in beef stocks was the largest experienced throughout the past seven years.
Chicken – Stocks Remain Lower on a YOY Basis for the Ninth Time in Ten Months, Finish Down 4.5%
Sep ’19 U.S. frozen chicken stocks increased 2.5% MOM to a ten month high but remained lower on a YOY basis for the ninth time in the past ten months, finishing down 4.5%. Despite declining on a YOY basis, chicken stocks remained at the second highest seasonal level on record. The MOM increase in chicken stocks of 22.2 million pounds, or 2.5%, was larger than the ten year average August – September seasonal increase in stocks of 1.1 million pounds, or 0.1%.
Overall, Sep ’19 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks finished 3.7% below the Sep ’18 record high level. Individually, Sep ’19 chicken stocks finished five percent below the highest monthly storage level on record while pork and beef stocks finished within 15% and 19% of historical maximum storage levels, respectively.
Sep ’19 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks finished 3.7% below the record high September seasonal level experienced throughout 2018. Individually, Sep ’19 chicken and pork stocks finished within five percent and nine percent of the record high September storage levels, respectively, while beef stocks finished 11% below record high historical seasonal levels.
Combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks have finished lower on a YOY basis over nine consecutive months through Sep ’19.
- Sep ’19 U.S. pork stocks declined contraseasonally to an eight month low level but remained 1.6% higher on a YOY basis.
- Sep ’19 U.S. beef stocks declined contraseasonally to a five year low seasonal level, finishing down 8.5% on a YOY basis.
- Sep ’19 U.S. chicken stocks remained lower on a YOY basis for the ninth time in the past ten months, finishing down 4.5% but remaining at the second highest seasonal level on record.
According to USDA, Sep ’19 U.S. frozen pork stocks declined contraseasonally to an eight month low level but remained 1.6% higher on a YOY basis. Pork stocks have finished higher on a YOY basis over five consecutive months through September. The MOM decline in pork stocks of 7.9 million pounds, or 1.3%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average August – September seasonal build in stocks of 24.0 million pounds, or 4.7%. The August – September decline in pork stocks was the largest experienced throughout the past 19 years. Pork stocks have declined contraseasonally throughout each of the past two months.
Beef – Stocks Decline Contraseasonally, Finish at a Five Year Low Seasonal Level
Sep ’19 U.S. frozen beef stocks remained lower on a YOY basis for the seventh consecutive month, finishing down 8.5% and reaching a five year low seasonal level. The MOM decline in beef stocks of 5.7 million pounds, or 1.2%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average August – September seasonal build in stocks of 15.2 million pounds, or 3.5%. The August – September decline in beef stocks was the largest experienced throughout the past seven years.
Chicken – Stocks Remain Lower on a YOY Basis for the Ninth Time in Ten Months, Finish Down 4.5%
Sep ’19 U.S. frozen chicken stocks increased 2.5% MOM to a ten month high but remained lower on a YOY basis for the ninth time in the past ten months, finishing down 4.5%. Despite declining on a YOY basis, chicken stocks remained at the second highest seasonal level on record. The MOM increase in chicken stocks of 22.2 million pounds, or 2.5%, was larger than the ten year average August – September seasonal increase in stocks of 1.1 million pounds, or 0.1%.
Overall, Sep ’19 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks finished 3.7% below the Sep ’18 record high level. Individually, Sep ’19 chicken stocks finished five percent below the highest monthly storage level on record while pork and beef stocks finished within 15% and 19% of historical maximum storage levels, respectively.
Sep ’19 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks finished 3.7% below the record high September seasonal level experienced throughout 2018. Individually, Sep ’19 chicken and pork stocks finished within five percent and nine percent of the record high September storage levels, respectively, while beef stocks finished 11% below record high historical seasonal levels.
Combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks have finished lower on a YOY basis over nine consecutive months through Sep ’19.