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Chinese Dairy Imports Update – Mar ’20

  • March 30, 2020
  • by Belinda Przybylski
Executive Summary Chinese dairy import figures provided by IHS Markit were recently updated with values spanning through Feb ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
  • Chinese dairy import volumes were projected to have increased on a YOY basis for the 15th time in the past 17 months during Feb ’20, finishing up 8.7% and reaching a record high seasonal level for the month of February.
  • Chinese whole milk powder import volumes were projected to have increased 16.4% on a YOY basis during Feb ’20, reaching a six year high seasonal level. Skim milk powder import volumes were projected to have declined 21.1% YOY but remained at the second highest seasonal level experienced throughout the past six years. Feb ’20 Chinese dairy imports excluding whole milk powder and skim milk powder were projected to have increased 13.2% YOY, reaching a record high seasonal level.
  • Jan-Feb ’20 Chinese dairy imports originating from within the U.S. and EU-28 gained market share from the previous year, while Chinese dairy imports originating from within Belarus and New Zealand finished most significantly below previous year volumes.
Additional Report Details According to IHS Markit, Feb ’20 total Chinese dairy import volumes were projected to have declined seasonally from the 12 month high level experienced throughout the previous month but remained higher on a YOY basis for the 15th time in the past 17 months, finishing up 8.7% to a record high seasonal level for the month of February. Chinese Customs released the Jan ’20 and Feb ’20 data together in aggregate form and the monthly split was based on five year average seasonal trends. 2019 annual Chinese dairy import volumes increased 13.7% on a YOY basis, reaching a record high level, however 2020 YTD import volumes have declined by 1.4% throughout the first two months of the year. Chinese whole milk powder (WMP) import volumes were projected to have increased 16.4% on a YOY basis throughout Feb ’20, reaching a six year high seasonal level. Chinese skim milk powder (SMP) import volumes were projected to have declined 21.1% on a YOY basis throughout Feb ’20 but remained at the second highest seasonal level experienced throughout the past six years. Feb ’20 Chinese dairy imports excluding WMP and SMP were projected to have increased 13.2% YOY throughout the month, reaching a record high seasonal level for the eighth consecutive month. Chinese dairy import volumes originating from within the U.S. increased most significantly on a YOY basis throughout the months of January and February, followed by volumes originating from within the EU-28, while imports originating from within Belarus and New Zealand finished significantly below previous year volumes. Chinese dairy import volumes originating from within New Zealand continued to account for 62% of all Chinese import volumes experienced throughout Jan-Feb ’20. The U.S. market share increased to 6.5%, up from the 5.2% market share experienced during January-February of 2019. Feb ’20 Total Chinese Dairy Import Volumes Declined Seasonally From the Previous Month Feb ’20 Chinese Dairy Import Volumes Projected Down 45.1% MOM but up 8.7% YOY Feb ’20 Total Chinese Dairy Imports Projected to Reach a Record High Seasonal Level Feb ’20 Chinese WMP Import Volumes Projected Down 59.8% MOM but up 16.4% YOY Feb ’20 Chinese WMP Imports Projected to Reach a Six Year High Seasonal Level Feb ’20 Chinese SMP Import Volumes Projected Down 45.2% MOM and 21.1% YOY Feb ’20 Chinese SMP Imports Projected to Remain at the 2nd Highest Seasonal Level in Six Yrs Feb ’20 Chinese Dairy Imports Excluding WMP & SMP Projected up 13.2% YOY Feb ’20 Chinese Dairy ‘Other’ Imports Reached a Record High Seasonal Level New Zealand Accounted for Over 60% of All Jan-Feb ’20 Chinese Dairy Import Volumes Jan-Feb ’20 New Zealand & U.S. Shares of Total Chinese Dairy Imports Finished Higher YOY Jan-Feb ’20 U.S. Share of Total Chinese Dairy Imports Increased Most Significantly YOY Chinese Dairy Imports From NZ and the EU-28 up Most Significantly Over the Past 12 Months
New Zealand Milk Production Update – Mar ’20
U.S. Dairy Exports Update – Apr ’20
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