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U.S. Dairy Cow Slaughter Update – Apr ’20

  • April 23, 2020
  • by Belinda Przybylski
Executive Summary U.S. dairy cow slaughter figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Mar ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
  • U.S. dairy cow slaughter rates increased contraseasonally but remained lower a YOY basis for the fifth time in the past six months during Mar ’20, finishing down 6.7% when normalizing for slaughter days. The YOY decline in dairy cow slaughter rates was the largest experienced throughout the past five years on a percentage basis.
  • Month-over-month increases in dairy cow slaughter rates were led by Standard Federal Region 7 (Iowa, Kansas, Missouri and Nebraska).
  • YOY declines in dairy cow slaughter rates were led by Standard Federal Region 5 (Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio and Wisconsin).
Additional Report Details According to the USDA, Mar ’20 U.S. dairy cow slaughter rates increased 1.5% from the previous month but remained 6.7% lower on a YOY basis when normalizing for slaughter days. Despite declining on a YOY basis, dairy cow slaughter rates remained 1.6% above three year average seasonal levels. The MOM increase in slaughter rates of 1.5% was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average February – March seasonal decline of 2.1%. The Mar ’20 YOY decline in U.S. dairy cow slaughter rates was the fifth experienced throughout the past six months and the largest experienced throughout the past five years on a percentage basis. Dairy cow slaughter rates had finished higher on a YOY basis over 30 consecutive months prior to the recently experienced declines. Recent declines in slaughter rates have contributed to the U.S. milk cow herd rebounding from the three year low level experienced during Jul ’19. The U.S. milk cow herd has increased by a total of 65,000 head throughout the past eight months, rebounding to a 19 month high level, overall. The U.S. milk cow herd currently stands at 9.38 million head, up 47,000 head from the previous year but remaining 58,000 head below the 23 year high level experienced during Jan ’18. Month-over-month increases in dairy cow slaughter rates were most significant throughout Standard Federal Region 7 (Iowa, Kansas, Missouri and Nebraska), while slaughter rates declines most significantly on a MOM basis throughout Standard Federal Region 5 (Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio and Wisconsin). YOY declines in dairy cow slaughter were led by Standard Federal Region 5 (Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio and Wisconsin), followed by Standard Federal Region 6 (Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas). 2019 annual dairy cow slaughter rates increased 4.4% on a YOY basis, reaching a 33 year high and a 35 year high level on a percentage of the total dairy cow herd basis.  
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