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Soybean Complex Crushing & Stocks Update – May ’20

  • May 4, 2020
  • by Belinda Przybylski
Executive Summary U.S. soybean crush and stocks figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Mar ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
  • U.S. soybean crushings increased 7.1% on a YOY basis during Mar ’20, reaching a record high seasonal level.
  • U.S. soybean cake & meal stocks finished 20.8% lower on a YOY basis during Mar ’20, declining on a YOY basis for the fifth time in the past seven months.
  • U.S. soybean oil stocks finished 5.1% higher on a YOY basis during Mar ’20, reaching a 23 month high level, overall.
Additional Report Details Soybean Crushing – Crush Reaches a Record High Seasonal Level, Finishes up 4.0% YOY According to USDA, Mar ’20 U.S. soybean crushings increased 7.1% on a YOY basis, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in soybean crushings was the fourth experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past 18 months on a percentage basis. Mar ’20 YOY increases in soybean crushings were largest throughout the North Central states of Michigan, Minnesota, North Dakota and South Dakota, followed by the West Central states of Indiana, Kansas, Missouri and Nebraska. 2019 annual soybean crushings finished 0.7% below the record high annual levels experienced throughout the previous year however 2020 YTD soybean crushings have rebounded by 4.7% on a YOY basis throughout the first quarter of the calendar year. Cake & meal accounted for 73.5% of the total soybean crush throughout Mar ’20, up slightly from the previous year, while oil accounted for 17.3% of the total soybean crush, down slightly from the previous year. Mar ’20 soybean oil produced as a percentage of total crush rebounded from the 21 month low level experienced throughout the previous month but remained below historical average figures for the sixth consecutive month. Soybean Cake & Meal Stocks – Stocks Finish 20.8% Lower YOY Mar ’20 U.S. soybean cake & meal stocks declined 7.1% MOM and 20.8% YOY, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the fifth time in the past seven months. The YOY decline in soybean cake & meal stocks was the largest experienced throughout the past six months on a percentage basis. The month-over-month decline in soybean cake & meal stocks of 7.1% was a contraseasonal move when compared to the three year February – March average seasonal increase in stocks of 26.8%. Mar ’20 soybean cake & meal stocks finished 13.3% below three year average seasonal levels, finishing lower for the third time in the past four months. Soybean Oil Stocks – Stocks Reach a 23 Month High Level, Finish up 5.1% YOY Mar ’20 U.S. soybean oil stocks increased 10.2% MOM to a 23 month high level, finishing 5.1% above previous year volumes. Soybean oil stocks had finished lower on a YOY basis throughout 11 consecutive months prior to finishing higher throughout each of the past four months. The month-over-month increase in soybean oil stocks of 10.2% was largely consistent with the three year February – March average seasonal build of 9.2%. Mar ’20 soybean oil stocks finished 8.1% above three year average seasonal levels, finishing higher for the fifth consecutive month.
Soybean Complex Price & Value Update – May ’20
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