Skip to content
800-884-8290

|

Client Login

|

Open an Account
  • About Us
  • Services
    • Futures & Options Brokerage
    • Organic Grain Swaps
    • Margin Management
    • Commodity Marketing Education
    • Consulting & Insurance
  • Research
    • Dairy
    • Livestock
    • Grain & Oilseeds
    • Ethanol & Biodiesel
  • Account
  • Quotes
  • Contact Us

New Zealand Milk Production Update – May ’20

  • May 26, 2020
  • by Belinda Przybylski
Executive Summary New Zealand milk production figures provided by Dairy Companies Association of New Zealand (DCANZ) were recently updated with values spanning through Apr ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
  • New Zealand milk production volumes declined on a YOY basis for the seventh time in the past eight months during Apr ’20, finishing down 0.6%. Production on a milk-solids basis declined on a YOY basis for the second time in the past three months, finishing down 0.8%.
  • Fonterra announced an opening ’20-’21 farmgate milk price forecast of $5.40-$6.90/kgMS, with the wide range reflecting the heightened uncertainty surrounding the COVID-19 outlook. The opening price range was 50% larger than the previous year opening price forecast.
  • New Zealand cow & heifer slaughter rates declined 4.9% on a YOY basis during Apr ’20 when normalizing for slaughter days, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month.
Additional Report Details Milk Production According to Dairy Companies Association of New Zealand (DCANZ), Apr ’20 New Zealand milk production volumes declined 16.6% from the previous month on a daily average basis, reaching an eight month low, while finishing 0.6% lower on a YOY basis. New Zealand milk production volumes typically reach a peak seasonal level throughout the month of October, prior to declining until seasonal lows are experienced throughout the months of June and July. On a milk-solids basis, Apr ’20 production declined 0.8% YOY, finishing lower for the second time in the past three months. New Zealand milk production volumes have finished lower on a YOY basis over seven of the past eight months through Apr ’20. ’19-’20 YTD milk production volumes have declined by 0.9% on a YOY basis heading into the final month of the production season however production on a milk-solids basis has increased 0.2% on a YOY basis throughout the period. Farmgate Milk Prices Fonterra’s current ’19-’20 farmgate milk price forecast was reduced to a midpoint of $7.20/kgMS during May ’20, down from a midpoint of $7.30/kgMS, citing a softening of demand relative to supply. The ’19-’20 farmgate milk price forecast remains on pace to reach a six year high level. Fonterra announced an opening ’20-’21 farmgate milk price forecast of $5.40-$6.90/kgMS, with the wide range reflecting the heightened uncertainty surrounding the COVID-19 outlook. The opening price range was 50% larger than the previous year opening price forecast. Cow & Heifer Slaughter New Zealand cow & heifer slaughter rates declined 4.9% on a YOY basis during Apr ’20 when normalizing for slaughter days, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month. New Zealand cow & heifer slaughter rates had finished higher on a YOY basis over eight consecutive months prior to the recent declines. Apr ’20 dairy cow & heifer slaughter, which has more limited historical data available, also declined on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month, finishing down 8.9%. ’18-’19 annual New Zealand cow & heifer slaughter rates declined 0.7% YOY while finishing 2.3% below three year average figures, however ’19-’20 YTD slaughter figures have rebounded by 4.0% heading into the final month of the production season and are on pace to reach a four year high level. New Zealand milk production volumes increased at a compound annual growth rate of 4.2% over the ten year period ending during the ’14-’15 record production season but have trended flat-to-lower over the four most recent production seasons as farmgate milk prices declined from the ’13-’14 record high levels and the New Zealand milk cow herd was reduced. USDA is projecting the New Zealand milk cow herd will decline slightly on a YOY basis throughout 2020 but remain above the six year low level experienced throughout 2017.
U.S. Dairy Cold Storage Update – May ’20
Chinese Dairy Imports Update – May ’20
Dairy
Ethanol
Livestock
Grain

Recent Dairy Research

  • U.S. Dairy Exports Update – Mar ’21
  • U.S. Dairy Dry Product Stocks Update – Mar ’21
  • U.S. Dairy Product Production Update – Mar ’21
  • Global Dairy Trade Results Update – 3/2/21
  • Atten Babler Dairy FX Indices – Mar ’21
Atten Babler Commodities LLC
11406 US Route 20 W
Galena, IL 61036
800-884-8290
Privacy Policy
Futures, options and swaps brokerage is provided through Atten Babler Commodities LLC. The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options and swaps is substantial. Swaps trading should only be undertaken by investors who are Eligible Contract Participants (ECPs) within the meaning of Section 1a(18) of the Commodity Exchange Act. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures, options or swaps trading is appropriate. When trading futures, options or swaps, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Atten Babler Commodities LLC use sources that they believe to be reliable, but they cannot warrant the accuracy of any of the data included in this site. Opinions and market data are subject to change at any time. Unless otherwise stated the information contained herein is meant for informational purposes only and is not a solicitation to buy futures or options or swaps.
© Copyright 2021 Atten Babler Commodities LLC