EIA Drilling Productivity Report Update – Oct ’20
According to the EIA’s most recent Drilling Productivity Report, U.S. oil output is expected to decline to a five month low level throughout the month of November. The Drilling Productivity Report uses recent data on the total number of drilling rigs in operation, estimates of drilling productivity, and estimated changes in production from existing wells to provide estimated changes in oil production for the seven key regions shown below. Oct ’20 production levels were revised 175,000 barrels per day (bpd), or 2.3%, above levels previously forecasted but remained 88,000 bpd, or 1.1%, below Sep ’20 production levels. Nov ’20 production levels are expected to decline an additional 123,000 bpd, or 1.6%, from the Oct ’20 revised production levels, reaching a five month low level. The Nov ’20 projected month-over-month decline in oil production would be the third experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past six months. Record large month-over-month declines in oil production were experienced throughout the months of April and May. Oil production is expected to decline most significantly from the previous month within the Eagle Ford (-34,000 bpd), Niobrara (-28,000 bpd) and Bakken (-22,000 bpd) regions. The expected declines in Eagle Ford, Niobrara and Bakken production levels accounted for over two thirds of the total expected decline in production. Nov ’20 oil production is expected to remain lower on a YOY basis for the seventh consecutive month, finishing 15.9% below previous year levels. The projected YOY decline in Nov ’20 oil production would be the second largest on record, trailing only the May ’20 decline. Sep ’20 U.S. drilled-but-uncompleted (DUC) wells declined 1.0% from the previous month, reaching a 21 month low level, overall. DUC wells, which have been drilled by producers but have not yet been made ready for production, have been compiled since Dec ’13. Anadarko DUC wells declined most significantly from the previous month throughout Sep ’20, followed by Permian DUC wells. Anadarko DUC wells declined to a 41 month low level, overall.