Ethanol Rail Movements Update – Dec ’20
According to the EIA, Sep ’20 ethanol rail movements increased 0.7% MOM on a daily average basis, reaching a six month high level and finishing 13.3% above previous year levels. The YOY increase in monthly ethanol rail movements was the first experienced throughout the past six months. 2019 annual ethanol rail movements declined 4.7% on a YOY basis, reaching a three year low level, while 2020 YTD figures have declined by an additional 10.1% YOY throughout the first three quarters of the calendar year, despite the most recent increase. 12 month rolling average ethanol rail movements have ranged from 60% – 69% of monthly ethanol production, historically. Sep ’20 ethanol rail movements accounted for 67.8% of monthly production on a 12 month rolling average basis, reaching a 22 month high level. Ethanol rail movement figures are broken out by Petroleum Administration for Defense District (PADD) for both originating rail movements and destinations of shipments. The U.S. is regionally divided into five PADDs, which include the East Coast, Midwest, Gulf Coast, Rocky Mountain and West Coast. Nearly 99% of the total rail movements originated in PADD 2 (Midwest) during Sep ’20. Over 10.1 million barrels of ethanol rail movements were destined to PADD 1 (East Coast) during Sep ’20, leading all regional districts. Ethanol rail movements destined to PADD 1 (East Coast) accounted for half of the total shipments during Sep ’20. Combined shipments to PADD 1 (East Coast), PADD 3 (Gulf Coast) and PADD 5 (West Coast) accounted for 90% of total ethanol rail movements, with minimal amounts being shipped to PADD 2 (Midwest), Canada and PADD 4 (Rocky Mountain). Ethanol rail movements destined to PADD 1 (East Coast) finished most significantly above historical average figures throughout Sep ’20 while ethanol movements destined to PADD 5 (West Coast) finished most significantly below historical average figures.