U.S. Dairy Cold Storage Update – Dec ’20
Executive Summary
U.S. cold storage figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Nov ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
According to the USDA, Nov ’20 U.S. butter stocks declined seasonally to a ten month low level but remained 39.4% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a 27 year high seasonal level for the month of November. The YOY increase in butter stocks was the 17th experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past four years on a percentage basis. The MOM decline in butter stocks of 47.9 million pounds was largely consistent with the ten year average October – November seasonal decline of 49.7 million pounds on an absolute basis but was significantly smaller on a percentage basis (16.0% decline compared to a ten year average decline of 27.5%). Butter stocks typically reach seasonal low levels throughout the month of November.
On a days of usage basis, Nov ’20 U.S. butter stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of November, butter stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the seventh time in the past eight months, finishing up 36.2%.
Cheese – Stocks Rebound Slightly From the Previous Month’s Ten Month Low, Finish 1.7% Higher YOY
Nov ’20 U.S. cheese stocks increased contraseasonally from the previous month’s ten month low level while finishing 1.7% higher on a YOY basis. Nov ’20 cheese stocks remained slightly below the record high seasonal level experienced throughout November of 2018, however. The YOY increase in cheese stocks was the first experienced throughout the past three months. American cheese stocks increased 2.7% on a YOY basis throughout the month while other-than-American cheese stocks finished 0.4% above previous year levels. The MOM increase in cheese stocks of 3.4 million pounds, or 0.3%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to ten year average October – November seasonal decline of 17.1 million pounds, or 1.5%.
On a days of usage basis, Nov ’20 U.S. cheese stocks finished slightly higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of November, cheese stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the fourth time in the past five months, finishing up 3.8%.
Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Nov ’20 Stocks Projected to Remain Higher YOY
Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk remained at a record high seasonal level for the ninth consecutive month throughout Oct ’20, finishing 3.8% above previous year levels and reaching a record high seasonal level. Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk are projected to remain higher on a YOY basis throughout Nov ’20 when using actual butter and cheese stock figures and previous month YOY changes in dry whey and nonfat dry milk stocks, increasing by an estimated 3.8% and reaching a record high seasonal level. Nov ’20 dry whey and nonfat dry milk stock figures are scheduled to be available January 6th.
- U.S. butter stocks declined seasonally to a ten month low level throughout Nov ’20 but remained higher on a YOY basis for the 17th consecutive month, finishing up 39.4% and reaching a 27 year high seasonal level. The YOY increase in butter stocks was the largest experienced throughout the past four years on a percentage basis.
- U.S. cheese stocks rebounded contraseasonally from the previous month’s ten month low level throughout Nov ’20 while finishing 1.7% higher on a YOY basis.
According to the USDA, Nov ’20 U.S. butter stocks declined seasonally to a ten month low level but remained 39.4% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a 27 year high seasonal level for the month of November. The YOY increase in butter stocks was the 17th experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past four years on a percentage basis. The MOM decline in butter stocks of 47.9 million pounds was largely consistent with the ten year average October – November seasonal decline of 49.7 million pounds on an absolute basis but was significantly smaller on a percentage basis (16.0% decline compared to a ten year average decline of 27.5%). Butter stocks typically reach seasonal low levels throughout the month of November.
On a days of usage basis, Nov ’20 U.S. butter stocks also finished higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of November, butter stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the seventh time in the past eight months, finishing up 36.2%.
Cheese – Stocks Rebound Slightly From the Previous Month’s Ten Month Low, Finish 1.7% Higher YOY
Nov ’20 U.S. cheese stocks increased contraseasonally from the previous month’s ten month low level while finishing 1.7% higher on a YOY basis. Nov ’20 cheese stocks remained slightly below the record high seasonal level experienced throughout November of 2018, however. The YOY increase in cheese stocks was the first experienced throughout the past three months. American cheese stocks increased 2.7% on a YOY basis throughout the month while other-than-American cheese stocks finished 0.4% above previous year levels. The MOM increase in cheese stocks of 3.4 million pounds, or 0.3%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to ten year average October – November seasonal decline of 17.1 million pounds, or 1.5%.
On a days of usage basis, Nov ’20 U.S. cheese stocks finished slightly higher YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of November, cheese stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the fourth time in the past five months, finishing up 3.8%.
Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Nov ’20 Stocks Projected to Remain Higher YOY
Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk remained at a record high seasonal level for the ninth consecutive month throughout Oct ’20, finishing 3.8% above previous year levels and reaching a record high seasonal level. Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk are projected to remain higher on a YOY basis throughout Nov ’20 when using actual butter and cheese stock figures and previous month YOY changes in dry whey and nonfat dry milk stocks, increasing by an estimated 3.8% and reaching a record high seasonal level. Nov ’20 dry whey and nonfat dry milk stock figures are scheduled to be available January 6th.