EU-28 Milk Production Update – Jan ’21
Executive Summary
EU-28 milk production figures provided by Eurostat were recently updated with values spanning through Nov ’20. Highlights from the updated report include:
The Nov ’20 YOY increase in EU-28 milk production volumes was the 21st experienced throughout the past 22 months. EU-28 milk production volumes declined on a YOY basis for the first time in 16 months throughout May ’20 as warm and dry conditions adversely impacted pastures, particularly throughout Eastern Europe. Weather conditions have returned to more favorable levels for milk production over more recent months.
Nov ’20 YOY increases in production on an absolute basis were led by Ireland, followed by Italy and the United Kingdom, while YOY declines in production on an absolute basis were led by Germany.
YOY increases in production on a percentage basis are expected to be led by Cyprus (+14.4%), followed by Ireland (+8.6%) and Bulgaria (+6.8%), while declines in production on a percentage basis were led by Austria (-1.8%), followed by Germany (-0.5%) and France (-0.3%).
Eight of the top ten milk producing member states experienced YOY increases in milk production during Nov ’20, resulting in production within the top ten milk producing member states increasing by a weighted average of 1.2% throughout the month. The top ten EU-28 milk producing member states accounted for over 85% of the total EU-28 milk production experienced throughout the month. Production outside of the top ten milk producing member states increased by 1.7% on a YOY basis. Overall, 24 of the 28 member states experienced YOY increases in production volumes during Nov ’20.
EU-28 beef & dairy cow slaughter finished lower on a YOY basis for the seventh time in the past nine months during Oct ’20 when normalizing for slaughter days, declining by 3.3%. YOY declines in beef & dairy cow slaughter were most significant throughout the United Kingdom, followed by France and Ireland.
’19-’20 annual EU-28 bovine slaughter declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past six years, finishing down 1.8% and reaching a four year low level. USDA expects the EU-28 dairy cow herd to decline 1.2% throughout the 2020 calendar year, due to feed shortages stemming from the recent droughts but noted additional culling rates, coupled with improved genetics, are expected to have a positive impact on future per cow productivity as lower producing animals are culled. Significant declines in beef & dairy cow slaughter rates experienced throughout the months of April and May were likely amplified by dislocations in meat processing caused by COVID-19.
- Nov ’20 EU-28 milk production finished 1.2% higher on a YOY basis throughout Nov ’20, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in EU-28 milk production volumes was the 21st experienced throughout the past 22 months.
- Nov ’20 YOY increases in milk production were led by Ireland, followed by Italy and the United Kingdom, while declines were most significant throughout Germany. Overall, 24 of the 28 member states experienced YOY increases in milk production throughout the month.
- EU-28 beef & dairy cow slaughter rates finished lower on a YOY basis for the seventh time in the past nine months during Oct ’20 when normalizing for slaughter days, declining by 3.3%.
The Nov ’20 YOY increase in EU-28 milk production volumes was the 21st experienced throughout the past 22 months. EU-28 milk production volumes declined on a YOY basis for the first time in 16 months throughout May ’20 as warm and dry conditions adversely impacted pastures, particularly throughout Eastern Europe. Weather conditions have returned to more favorable levels for milk production over more recent months.
Nov ’20 YOY increases in production on an absolute basis were led by Ireland, followed by Italy and the United Kingdom, while YOY declines in production on an absolute basis were led by Germany.
YOY increases in production on a percentage basis are expected to be led by Cyprus (+14.4%), followed by Ireland (+8.6%) and Bulgaria (+6.8%), while declines in production on a percentage basis were led by Austria (-1.8%), followed by Germany (-0.5%) and France (-0.3%).
Eight of the top ten milk producing member states experienced YOY increases in milk production during Nov ’20, resulting in production within the top ten milk producing member states increasing by a weighted average of 1.2% throughout the month. The top ten EU-28 milk producing member states accounted for over 85% of the total EU-28 milk production experienced throughout the month. Production outside of the top ten milk producing member states increased by 1.7% on a YOY basis. Overall, 24 of the 28 member states experienced YOY increases in production volumes during Nov ’20.
EU-28 beef & dairy cow slaughter finished lower on a YOY basis for the seventh time in the past nine months during Oct ’20 when normalizing for slaughter days, declining by 3.3%. YOY declines in beef & dairy cow slaughter were most significant throughout the United Kingdom, followed by France and Ireland.
’19-’20 annual EU-28 bovine slaughter declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past six years, finishing down 1.8% and reaching a four year low level. USDA expects the EU-28 dairy cow herd to decline 1.2% throughout the 2020 calendar year, due to feed shortages stemming from the recent droughts but noted additional culling rates, coupled with improved genetics, are expected to have a positive impact on future per cow productivity as lower producing animals are culled. Significant declines in beef & dairy cow slaughter rates experienced throughout the months of April and May were likely amplified by dislocations in meat processing caused by COVID-19.