Executive Summary

U.S. dairy cow slaughter figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Jan ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• Jan ’21 U.S. dairy cow slaughter rates declined 5.1% on a YOY basis when normalizing for slaughter days, reaching a four year low seasonal level.
• Recent declines in slaughter rates have contributed to the U.S. milk cow herd rebounding to a 25 year high level through Jan ’21.
• YOY declines in dairy cow slaughter rates continue to be led by Standard Federal Region 9 (Arizona, California, Hawaii and Nevada).

Additional Report Details

According to the USDA, Jan ’21 U.S. dairy cow slaughter rates rebounded seasonally to a ten month high level but remained 5.1% lower on a YOY basis when normalizing for slaughter days. Dairy cow slaughter rates reached a four year low seasonal level for the month of January. The seasonal increase in slaughter rates of 3.5% was smaller than the ten year average December – January seasonal increase of 7.1%.

Dairy cow slaughter rates had finished higher on a YOY basis over 30 consecutive months through Jul ’19 prior to finishing flat or lower throughout 16 of the past 18 months. The Jan ’21 YOY decline in dairy cow slaughter rates was the second smallest experienced throughout the past eight months, however.

Recent declines in slaughter rates have contributed to the U.S. milk cow herd continuing to grow through Jan ’21. The Jan ’21 U.S. milk cow herd figure increased 8,000 head from the previous month, reaching a 25 year high level and finishing 85,000 head above the previous year.

Month-over-month increases in dairy cow slaughter rates were most significant throughout Standard Federal Region 9 (Arizona, California, Hawaii and Nevada), followed by Standard Federal Region 10 (Alaska, Idaho, Oregon and Washington).

YOY declines in dairy cow slaughter were led by Standard Federal Region 9 (Arizona, California, Hawaii and Nevada), followed by Standard Federal Region 3 (Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Virginia and West Virginia). Dairy cow slaughter rates increased most on a YOY basis throughout Standard Federal Region 7 (Iowa, Kansas, Missouri and Nebraska).

2019 annual dairy cow slaughter rates increased 2.3% on a YOY basis, reaching a 33 year high and a 35 year high level on a percentage of the total dairy cow herd basis. 2020 annual dairy cow slaughter rates declined 5.6% on a YOY basis, however, reaching a three year low level on both an absolute and percentage of the total dairy cow herd basis.