Executive Summary

U.S. cold storage figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Feb ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. pork stocks reached a 14 year low seasonal level throughout Feb ’21, finishing 24.3% below previous year volumes.
• U.S. beef stocks reached a record high seasonal level throughout Feb ’21, finishing 3.3% above previous year levels.
• U.S. chicken stocks declined to a three and a half year low level throughout Feb ‘21, finishing 16.8% lower on a YOY basis.

Additional Report Details

Pork – Stocks Finish at a 14 Year Low Seasonal Level, Down 24.3% on a YOY Basis

According to the USDA, Feb ’21 U.S. frozen pork stocks increased seasonally to a ten month high level but remained 24.3% below previous year volumes, reaching a 14 year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in pork stocks was the 11^th experienced in a row. Frozen pork stocks had finished higher on a YOY basis over 11 consecutive months prior to the 11 most recent YOY declines. The month-over-month increase in pork stocks of 34.0 million pound, or 7.4%, was consistent with the ten year average January – February seasonal increase in stocks of 37.9 million pounds, or 6.5%.

Beef – Stocks Reach a Record High Seasonal Level, Finish up 3.3% on a YOY Basis

Feb ’21 U.S. frozen beef stocks declined seasonally from the previous month but remained 3.3% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a record high seasonal level. The YOY increase in beef stocks was the fifth experienced in a row. The month-over-month decline in beef stocks of 8.5 million pounds, or 1.6%, was consistent with the ten year average January – February seasonal decline in stocks of 9.4 million pounds, or 1.6%.

Chicken – Stocks Decline to a Three and a Half Year Low Level, Finish Down 16.8% on a YOY Basis

Feb ’21 U.S. frozen chicken stocks declined seasonally to a three and a half year low level while finishing 16.8% below previous year levels. Chicken stocks reached a six year low seasonal level for the month of February, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the seventh consecutive month. Chicken stocks had finished higher on a YOY basis over ten consecutive months prior to finishing lower over each of the past seven months. The month-over-month decline in chicken stocks of 48.1 million pounds, or 5.9%, was significantly greater than the ten year average January – February seasonal decline in stocks of 9.0 million pounds, or 1.2%.

Overall, Feb ’21 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks finished 14.5% below the monthly record high level experienced throughout Jan ’20. Individually, Feb ’21 beef stocks finished ten percent below the record high historical storage level, while chicken and pork stocks finished 22% and 30% below their respective maximum historical storage levels.

Feb ’21 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks declined to a nine year low seasonal level, finishing 14.3% below the record high seasonal level experienced during February of 2020. Individually, Feb ’21 beef stocks reached a record high seasonal storage level however chicken and pork stocks finished 17% and 29% below record high seasonal storage levels, respectively.

The Feb ’21 YOY decline in combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks was the tenth experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past six and a half years on a percentage basis.