Executive Summary

U.S. cattle on feed figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through the end of Mar ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market as of Apr 1^st increased 5.3% YOY, finishing higher for the ninth consecutive month. The YOY increase in the cattle on feed supply was slightly smaller than average analyst expectations, however.
• Placements in feedlots increased 28.3% on a YOY basis throughout Mar ’21, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month. The YOY increase in placements finished below analyst expectations, however.
• Marketings of fed cattle increased 1.5% on a YOY basis throughout Mar ’21, reaching a 21 year high seasonal level. The YOY increase in marketings finished slightly above analyst expectations.

Additional Report Details

According to the USDA, Apr 1^st cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the U.S. for feedlots with capacity of a thousand head or more declined seasonally from the previous month but remained 5.3% higher on a YOY basis. The YOY increase in the cattle on feed supply was the ninth experienced in a row. The 5.3% YOY increase in the cattle on feed supply was slightly smaller than average analyst expectations of a 6.1% increase, however. The month-over-month decline in the cattle on feed supply of 0.9% was larger than the ten year average March – April decline of 0.1%.

The Apr ’21 cattle on feed inventory included 7.41 million steers and steer calves, up 4.6% from 2020 levels, and 4.49 million heifers and heifer calves, up 6.5% from the previous year.

Placements in feedlots finished higher on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month throughout Mar ’21, increasing by 28.3%. The 28.3% YOY increase in placements finished below average analyst expectations of a 33.7% increase, however. Placements were significantly reduced in March of 2020 as COVID-19 outbreaks closed slaughterhouses and slowed meat processing. YOY increases in placements were led by those weighing 600-699 pounds (+47.7%), followed by placements weighing less than 600 pounds (+30.6%), placements weighing 700-799 pounds (+24.4%) and placements weighing 800 pounds or more (+22.7%).

Total placements in feedlots declined 0.9% on a YOY basis throughout the ’19-’20 production season, reaching a four year low level. ’20-’21 YTD placements have rebounded by 0.8% on a YOY basis throughout the first half of the production season, however.

Cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds increased 37.7% on a YOY basis during Mar ’21, reaching an eight year high seasonal level. Cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds finished 0.2% above previous year levels throughout the ’19-’20 production season however ’20-’21 YTD placements weighing under 700 pounds have declined by 0.9% on a YOY basis throughout the first half of the production season, despite the most recent increase.

Cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more increased 23.4% on a YOY basis during Mar ’21, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month. Cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more declined 1.7% on a YOY basis throughout the ’19-’20 production season however ’20-’21 YTD placements weighing 700 pounds or more have rebounded by 2.2% on a YOY basis throughout the first half of the production season.

Marketings of fed cattle increased 1.5% on a YOY basis throughout Mar ’21, reaching a 21 year high seasonal level. The 1.5% YOY increase in marketings finished slightly above average analyst expectations of a 1.1% increase. Marketings of fed cattle had reached record low levels over the months of April and May 2020 as slaughterhouses slowed or closed operations due to outbreaks of COVID-19, prior to rebounding throughout the past several months of data.

’19-’20 annual marketings of fed cattle declined 2.9% on a YOY basis from the 11 year high level experienced throughout the previous production season. ’20-’21 YTD marketings have declined by an additional 0.6% on a YOY basis throughout the first half of the production season, despite the most recent increase.