Executive Summary

U.S. cold storage figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Mar ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. pork stocks reached a 17 year low seasonal level throughout Mar ’21, finishing 26.8% below previous year volumes.
• U.S. beef stocks declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past six months throughout Mar ’21, finishing 3.7% below previous year levels.
• U.S. chicken stocks declined to a five and a half year low level throughout Mar ‘21, finishing 19.5% lower on a YOY basis. The YOY decline in chicken stocks was the largest experienced throughout the past nine years.

Additional Report Details

Pork – Stocks Reach a 17 Year Low Seasonal Level, Finish 26.8% Lower on a YOY Basis

According to the USDA, Mar ’21 U.S. frozen pork stocks declined seasonally from the ten month high level experienced throughout the previous month while finishing 26.8% below previous year volumes, reaching a 17 year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in pork stocks was the 12^th experienced in a row. Frozen pork stocks had finished higher on a YOY basis over 11 consecutive months prior to the 12 most recent YOY declines. The month-over-month decline in pork stocks of 31.6 million pound, or 6.5%, was larger than the ten year average February – March seasonal decline in stocks of 16.6 million pounds, or 2.6%.

Beef – Stocks Finish Lower on a YOY Basis for the First Time in the Past Six Months, Down 3.7%

Mar ’21 U.S. frozen beef stocks declined seasonally to a six month low level while finishing 3.7% below previous year volumes. The YOY decline in beef stocks was the first experienced throughout the past six months. The month-over-month decline in beef stocks of 28.9 million pounds, or 5.6%, was larger than the ten year average February – March seasonal decline in stocks of 12.9 million pounds, or 2.6%.

Chicken – Stocks Decline to a Five and a Half Year Low Level, Finish Down 19.5% on a YOY Basis

Mar ’21 U.S. frozen chicken stocks declined seasonally to a five and a half year low level, finishing 19.5% below previous year levels. The YOY decline in chicken stocks was the largest experienced throughout the past nine years. Chicken stocks reached a seven year low seasonal level for the month of March, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the eighth consecutive month. Chicken stocks had finished higher on a YOY basis over ten consecutive months prior to finishing lower over each of the past eight months. The month-over-month decline in chicken stocks of 28.9 million pounds, or 3.8%, was larger than the ten year average February – March seasonal decline in stocks of 20.1 million pounds, or 2.9%.

Overall, Mar ’21 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks finished 19.1% below the monthly record high level experienced throughout Jan ’20. Individually, Mar ’21 beef stocks finished 15% below the record high historical storage level, while chicken and pork stocks finished 25% and 36% below their respective maximum historical storage levels.

Mar ’21 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks declined to a seven year low seasonal level, finishing 17.8% below the record high seasonal level experienced during March of 2020. Individually, Mar ’21 beef stocks finished six percent below the record high seasonal storage level, while chicken and pork stocks finished 20% and 33% below record high seasonal storage levels, respectively.

The Mar ’21 YOY decline in combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks was the 11^th experienced in a row and the largest experienced throughout the past 17 years on a percentage basis.