Executive Summary

U.S. dairy dry product stock figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Mar ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. dry whey stocks remained lower on a YOY basis for the sixth time in the past seven months throughout Mar ’21, finishing 14.0% below previous year figures and reaching a seven year low seasonal level.
• U.S. nonfat dry milk stocks finished lower on a YOY basis for the first time in the past six months, down 9.8% but remaining at the second highest seasonal level on record.

Additional Report Details

Dry Whey – Stocks Decline to a Seven Year Low Seasonal Level, Finish Down 14.0% YOY

According to the USDA, Mar ’21 month-end dry whey stocks declined contraseasonally to a 14 month low level, finishing 14.0% lower on a YOY basis and reaching a seven year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in dry whey stocks was the sixth experienced throughout the past seven months.

The month-over-month decline in dry whey stocks of 5.8 million pounds, or 8.3%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average February – March seasonal increase in dry whey stocks of 2.3 million pounds, or 4.0%. Dry whey production increased 0.9% on a YOY basis throughout Mar ’21, finishing above previous year figures for the third time in the past four months.

On a days of usage basis, Mar ’21 U.S. dry whey stocks also finished lower YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of March, dry whey stocks on a days of usage basis finished 11.6% lower YOY, declining on a YOY basis for the sixth time in the past seven months.

Nonfat Dry Milk – Stocks Finish Lower on a YOY Basis for the First Time in Six Months, Down 9.8%

Mar ’21 month-end nonfat dry milk (NFDM) stocks declined contraseasonally from the nine month high level experienced throughout the previous month while finishing 9.8% lower on a YOY basis. The YOY decline in NFDM stocks was first experienced throughout the past six months and the largest experienced throughout the past 15 months on a percentage basis. Mar ’21 NFDM stocks remained at the second highest seasonal level on record, however.

The month-over-month decline in NFDM stocks of 26.8 million pounds, or 7.8%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average February – March seasonal increase in stocks of 6.7 million pounds, or 3.3%. The February – March seasonal decline in NFDM stocks was the largest experienced throughout the past 69 years. NFDM production increased 14.1% on a YOY basis throughout Mar ’21, finishing higher for the eighth consecutive month.

On a days of usage basis, Mar ’21 U.S. NFDM stocks also finished lower YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of March, NFDM stocks on a days of usage basis finished 16.7% below previous year figures, declining on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month.

Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Stocks Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level, Finish up 4.4%

Mar ’21 combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and NFDM declined contraseasonally from the nine month high level experienced throughout the previous month but remained 4.4% higher on a YOY basis. Combined stocks reached a record high seasonal level for the 14^th consecutive month.