Executive Summary

U.S. cattle on feed figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through the end of Apr ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market as of May 1^st increased 4.7% YOY, finishing higher for the tenth consecutive month. The YOY increase in the cattle on feed supply was slightly larger than average analyst expectations.
• Placements in feedlots increased 27.2% on a YOY basis throughout Apr ’21, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month. The YOY increase in placements finished above analyst expectations.
• Marketings of fed cattle increased 32.8% on a YOY basis throughout Apr ’21, reaching a 13 year high seasonal level. The YOY increase in marketings finished consistent with analyst expectations.

Additional Report Details

According to the USDA, May 1^st cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the U.S. for feedlots with capacity of a thousand head or more declined seasonally to a seven month low level but remained 4.7% higher on a YOY basis, reaching the second highest seasonal level on record. The YOY increase in the cattle on feed supply was the tenth experienced in a row. The 4.7% YOY increase in the cattle on feed supply was slightly larger than average analyst expectations of a 3.9% increase. The month-over-month decline in the cattle on feed supply of 1.4% was consistent with the ten year average April – May decline of 1.3%. The cattle on feed supply remained 0.7% below 2019 seasonal levels.

Placements in feedlots finished higher on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month throughout Apr ’21, increasing by 27.2%. The 27.2% YOY increase in placements finished above average analyst expectations of a 22.5% increase. Placements were significantly reduced in April of 2020 as COVID-19 outbreaks closed slaughterhouses and slowed meat processing. YOY increases in placements were led by those weighing 600-699 pounds (+38.9%), followed by placements weighing 700-799 pounds (+33.3%), placements weighing less than 600 pounds (+28.8%) and placements weighing 800 pounds or more (+20.1%). Placements remained 1.1% below 2019 seasonal levels.

Total placements in feedlots declined 0.9% on a YOY basis throughout the ’19-’20 production season, reaching a four year low level. ’20-’21 YTD placements have rebounded by 3.8% on a YOY basis throughout the first seven months of the production season, however.

Cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds increased 32.6% on a YOY basis during Apr ’21, reaching an eight year high seasonal level. Cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds finished 0.2% above previous year levels throughout the ’19-’20 production season while ’20-’21 YTD placements weighing under 700 pounds have increased by an additional 1.9% on a YOY basis throughout the first seven months of the production season.

Cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more increased 24.5% on a YOY basis during Apr ’21, finishing higher on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month. Cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more declined 1.7% on a YOY basis throughout the ’19-’20 production season however ’20-’21 YTD placements weighing 700 pounds or more have rebounded by 5.2% on a YOY basis throughout the first seven months of the production season.

Marketings of fed cattle increased 32.8% on a YOY basis throughout Apr ’21, reaching a 13 year high seasonal level. The 32.8% YOY increase in marketings was consistent with average analyst expectations of a 33.0% increase. Marketings of fed cattle had reached record low levels over the months of April and May 2020 as slaughterhouses slowed or closed operations due to outbreaks of COVID-19. Marketings finished 0.5% above 2019 seasonal levels.

’19-’20 annual marketings of fed cattle declined 2.9% on a YOY basis from the 11 year high level experienced throughout the previous production season. ’20-’21 YTD marketings have rebounded by 3.3% on a YOY basis throughout the first seven months of the production season and are on pace to reach a 19 year high level.