EIA Drilling Productivity Report Update – Jun ’21
According to the EIA’s most recent Drilling Productivity Report, U.S. oil output is expected to rebound to an eight month high level throughout the month of July. The Drilling Productivity Report uses recent data on the total number of drilling rigs in operation, estimates of drilling productivity, and estimated changes in production from existing wells to provide estimated changes in oil production for the seven key regions shown below.
Jun ’21 production levels were revised 32,200 barrels per day (bpd), or 0.4%, above levels previously forecasted, rebounding to a seven month high level. Jul ’21 production levels are expected to increase by an additional 37,200 bpd, or 0.5%, from the Jun ’21 revised production levels, reaching an eight month high level.
The Jul ’21 projected month-over-month increase in oil production would be the second experienced in a row. A pandemic related record large month-over-month decline in oil production was experienced throughout May 2020, while Feb ’21 production volumes were also reduced significantly due to deep freeze related slowdowns.
Oil production is expected to increase most significantly from the previous month within the Permian (+55,600 bpd) region. The projected increase in Permian production levels is expected to more than offset a combined 18,400 bpd decline in production levels experienced throughout the six other production regions. Oil production is expected to decline most significantly from the previous month within the Niobrara (-7,100 bpd), Anadarko (-4,500 bpd) and Eagle Ford (-4,400 bpd) regions.
Jul ’21 oil production is expected to remain higher on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month, finishing less than 0.1% above previous year levels. Oil production had finished lower on a YOY basis over 12 consecutive months through Apr ’21.
May ’21 U.S. drilled-but-uncompleted (DUC) wells declined 3.6% from the previous month, reaching a 32 month low level, overall. DUC wells, which have been drilled by producers but have not yet been made ready for production, have been compiled since Dec ’13. The monthly decline in DUC wells was the 11th experienced in a row.
Permian DUC wells declined most significantly from the previous month throughout May ’21, followed by Niobrara and Eagle Ford DUC wells. Appalachia and Niobrara DUC wells each declined to the lowest levels on record.