Executive Summary

U.S. cattle & hog production figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through May ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• May ’21 U.S. commercial red meat production declined contraseasonally to a 12 month low level but remained 9.3% higher on a YOY basis. Total red meat production volumes finished 3.9% below 2019 seasonal levels, however.
• U.S. pork production declined seasonally to a 12 month low level throughout May ’21 but remained 5.4% higher on a YOY basis. The total number of hogs slaughtered increased 7.4% on a YOY basis throughout May ’21, more than offsetting a 2.0% YOY decline in average weights per head.
• U.S. beef production declined contraseasonally to a 12 month low level throughout May ’21 but remained 9.3% higher on a YOY basis. The total number of cattle slaughtered increased 13.4% on a YOY basis throughout May ’21, more than offsetting a 0.5% YOY decline in average weights per head.

Additional Report Details

Total Red Meat – Production Declines Contraseasonally to a 12 Month Low, Remains up 9.3% YOY

According to the USDA, May ’21 U.S. commercial red meat production declined contraseasonally to a 12 month low level but remained 9.3% above previous year levels when normalizing for slaughter days. Red meat production was reduced significantly throughout May of 2020 as several major packing plants were closed due to COVID-19. May ’21 red meat production finished 3.9% below 2019 seasonal levels. Total red meat production declined 6.8% from April – May when normalizing for slaughter days, which was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average April – May build in production of 2.0% and the largest seasonal decline experienced throughout the past 75 years.

’19-’20 annual red meat production finished 1.5% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a record high level for the fourth consecutive year. ’20-’21 YTD red meat production has increased by an additional 3.0% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season.

Total 12-month rolling average red meat production remained above trendline for the 45^th consecutive month throughout May ’21. The most recent deviation from trendline was the second largest experienced on record.

Pork – Production Declines to a 12 Month Low, Remains up 5.4% YOY

May ’21 U.S. pork production declined to a 12 month low level but remained 5.4% above previous year levels when normalizing for slaughter days. The May ’21 total number of hogs slaughtered increased 7.4% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 2.0% decline in average weights per head. May ’21 pork production remained 4.7% below 2019 seasonal levels, however. Pork production declined 9.8% from April – May when normalizing for slaughter days, which was greater than the ten year average April – May decline in production of 1.4%.

’19-’20 annual pork production finished 3.3% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a record high level for the sixth consecutive year. ’20-’21 YTD pork production has increased by an additional 1.7% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season.

Beef – Production Declines Contraseasonally to a 12 Month Low, Remains up 13.5% YOY

May ’21 U.S. beef production declined contraseasonally to a 12 month low level but remained 13.5% above previous year levels when normalizing for slaughter days. The May ’21 total number of cattle slaughtered increased 13.4% YOY throughout the month, more than offsetting a 0.5% decline in average weights per head. May ’21 beef production remained 3.0% below 2019 seasonal levels, however. Beef production declined 3.7% from April – May when normalizing for slaughter days, which was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average April – May build in production of 5.4% and the largest seasonal decline experienced throughout the past 73 years.

’19-’20 annual beef production declined 0.2% on a YOY basis from the 16 year high level experienced throughout the previous production season. ’20-’21 YTD beef production has rebounded by 4.5% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season and is on pace to reach a record high annual level.