Executive Summary

U.S. cattle on feed figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through the end of Jun ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market as of Jul 1^st declined 1.3% on a YOY basis, finishing lower for the first time in the past 12 months. The YOY decline in the cattle on feed supply was slightly larger than average analyst expectations.
• Placements in feedlots declined 7.1% on a YOY basis throughout Jun ’21, reaching a five year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in placements was slightly larger than average analyst expectations.
• Marketings of fed cattle increased 2.7% on a YOY basis throughout Jun ’21, reaching a ten year high level. The YOY increase in marketings was slightly larger than average analyst expectations.

Additional Report Details

According to the USDA, Jul 1^st cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the U.S. for feedlots with capacity of a thousand head or more declined to an 11 month low level while finishing 1.3% lower on a YOY basis, reaching a three year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in the cattle on feed supply was the first experienced in the past 12 months. The 1.3% YOY decline in the cattle on feed supply was slightly larger than average analyst expectations of a 1.0% decline.

The Jul ’21 cattle on feed inventory included 6.98 million steers and steer calves, down 0.8% from 2020 levels, and 4.32 million heifers and heifer calves, down 2.0% from the previous year.

Placements in feedlots finished lower on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month throughout Jun ’21, declining by 7.1% and reaching a five year low seasonal level. The 7.1% YOY decline in placements was slightly larger than average analyst expectations of a 6.0% decline. YOY declines in placements were led by those weighing 600 pounds or less (-19.8%), followed by placements weighing 600-699 pounds (-16.1%) and 800 pounds or more (-1.1%). Placements weighing 700-799 pounds finished 4.2% above previous year levels.

Total placements in feedlots declined 0.9% on a YOY basis throughout the ’19-’20 production season, reaching a four year low level. ’20-’21 YTD placements have rebounded by 1.3% on a YOY basis throughout the first three quarters of the production season, despite the most recent decline.

Cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds declined 18.2% on a YOY basis during Jun ’21, reaching a five year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in placements weighing under 700 pounds was the largest experienced throughout the past 14 months on a percentage basis. Cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds finished 0.2% above previous year levels throughout the ’19-’20 production season however ’20-’21 YTD placements weighing under 700 pounds have declined by 1.5% on a YOY basis throughout the first three quarters of the production season and are on pace to reach a five year low level.

Cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more increased 0.7% on a YOY basis during Jun ’21, finishing above previous year levels for the sixth time in the past seven months. Cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more declined 1.7% on a YOY basis throughout the ’19-’20 production season however ’20-’21 YTD placements weighing 700 pounds or more have rebounded by 3.3% on a YOY basis throughout the first three quarters of the production season.

Marketings of fed cattle increased 2.7% on a YOY basis throughout Jun ’21, finishing above previous year levels for the fifth consecutive month and reaching a ten year high level, overall. The 2.7% YOY increase in marketings was slightly larger than average analyst expectations of a 2.2% increase.

’19-’20 annual marketings of fed cattle declined 2.9% on a YOY basis from the 11 year high level experienced throughout the previous production season. ’20-’21 YTD marketings have rebounded by 5.1% on a YOY basis throughout the first three quarters of the production season and are on pace to reach an 18 year high level.