Executive Summary

U.S. cold storage figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Jul ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. butter stocks remained higher on a YOY basis for the 25^th consecutive month throughout Jul ’21, finishing up 7.0% and reaching a 28 year high seasonal level for the month of July.
• U.S. cheese stocks remained at a record high seasonal level for the third consecutive month throughout Jul ’21, finishing 4.1% above previous year levels.

Additional Report Details

Butter – Stocks Reach a 28 Year High Seasonal Level, Finish 7.0% Higher YOY

According to the USDA, Jul ’21 U.S. butter stocks declined seasonally from the 27 year high level experienced throughout the previous month but remained 7.0% above previous year levels, reaching a 28 year high seasonal level for the month of July. Butter stocks have finished higher on a YOY basis over 25 consecutive months through Jul ’21. The month-over-month decline in butter stocks of 17.2 million pounds, or 4.2%, was greater than the ten year average June – July seasonal decline of 5.9 million pounds, or 2.4%. Butter stocks typically reach a seasonal peak throughout the month of May, prior to declining seasonally through the month of November.

On a days of usage basis, Jul ’21 U.S. butter stocks also finished above previous year levels. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of Jul, butter stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the 12^th time in the past 13 months, finishing up 5.5%.

Cheese – Stocks Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level, Finish 4.1% Higher YOY

Jul ’21 U.S. cheese stocks increased seasonally from the previous month while remaining at a record high seasonal level for the third consecutive month, finishing 4.1% above previous year levels. The YOY increase in cheese stocks was the eighth experienced throughout the past nine months. American cheese stocks increased 4.2% on a YOY basis throughout the month while other-than-American cheese stocks finished 4.1% above previous year levels. The month-over-month increase in cheese stocks of 14.3 million pounds, or 1.0%, was largely consistent with the ten year average June – July seasonal build of 10.5 million pounds, or 0.9%.

On a days of usage basis, Jul ’21 U.S. cheese stocks also finished above previous year levels. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of July, cheese stocks on a days of usage basis increased YOY for the second consecutive month, finishing up 1.6%.

Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Jul ’21 Stocks Projected to Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level

Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk finished 5.5% above previous year levels throughout Jun ’21, remaining at a record high seasonal level for the 16^th time in the past 17 months. Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk are projected to remain at a record high seasonal level throughout Jul ’21 when using actual butter and cheese stock figures and previous month YOY changes in dry whey and nonfat dry milk stocks, increasing by an estimated 1.4% on a YOY basis. Jul ’21 dry whey and nonfat dry milk stock figures are scheduled to be available Sep 3^rd.