Executive Summary

U.S. cattle on feed figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through the end of Aug ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market as of Sep 1^st declined 1.4% on a YOY basis, remaining below previous year levels for the third consecutive month. The YOY decline in the cattle on feed supply was slightly smaller than average analyst expectations.
• Placements in feedlots increased 2.3% on a YOY basis throughout Aug ’21, finishing above previous year levels for the first time in the past four months. The YOY increase in placements finished above average analyst expectations of a slight decline.
• Marketings of fed cattle declined 0.4% on a YOY basis throughout Aug ’21, reaching a five year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in marketings finished slightly below average analyst expectations.

Additional Report Details

According to the USDA, Sep 1^st cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the U.S. for feedlots with capacity of a thousand head or more rebounded from the 23 month low level experienced throughout the previous month but remained 1.4% below previous year levels. The YOY decline in the cattle on feed supply was the third experienced in a row. The 1.4% YOY decline in the cattle on feed supply was slightly smaller than average analyst expectations of a 1.8% decline.

Placements in feedlots finished 2.3% above previous year levels throughout Aug ’21, increasing on a YOY basis for the first time in the past four months. The 2.3% YOY increase in placements finished above average analyst expectations of a 0.9% decline. YOY increases in placements were led by those weighing 800 pounds or more (+7.3%), followed by placements weighing 700-799 pounds (+2.1%). Placements weighing 600-699 pounds declined by 7.5% on a YOY basis throughout the month while placements weighing 600 pounds or less finished flat with previous year levels.

Total placements in feedlots declined 0.9% on a YOY basis throughout the ’19-’20 production season, reaching a four year low level. ’20-’21 YTD placements have rebounded by 0.6% on a YOY basis heading into the final month of the production season.

Cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds declined 3.4% on a YOY basis during Aug ’21, finishing below previous year levels for the fourth consecutive month. Cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds finished 0.2% above previous year levels throughout the ’19-’20 production season however ’20-’21 YTD placements weighing under 700 pounds have declined by 2.7% on a YOY basis heading into the final month of the production season and are on pace to reach a four year low level.

Cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more increased 5.5% on a YOY basis during Aug ’21, finishing above previous year levels for the seventh time in the past nine months. Cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more declined 1.7% on a YOY basis throughout the ’19-’20 production season however ’20-’21 YTD placements weighing 700 pounds or more have rebounded by 2.9% on a YOY basis heading into the final month of the production season.

Marketings of fed cattle declined 0.4% on a YOY basis throughout Aug ’21, finishing below previous year levels for the second consecutive month and reaching a five year low seasonal level. The 0.4% YOY decline in marketings finished slightly below average analyst expectations of a flat YOY figure.

’19-’20 annual marketings of fed cattle declined 2.9% on a YOY basis from the 11 year high level experienced throughout the previous production season. ’20-’21 YTD marketings have rebounded by 3.7% on a YOY basis heading into the final month of the production season.