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U.S. Dairy Dry Product Stocks Update – Oct ’21

  • October 5, 2021October 5, 2021
  • by Belinda Przybylski

Executive Summary

U.S. dairy dry product stock figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Aug ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

  • U.S. dry whey stocks remained lower on a YOY basis for the 11th time in the past 12 months throughout Aug ’21, finishing 22.6% below previous year figures and reaching a five year low seasonal level.
  • Aug ’21 U.S. nonfat dry milk stocks declined seasonally to an eight month low level but remained 2.8% above previous year levels, reaching the second highest seasonal level on record.

Additional Report Details

Dry Whey – Stocks Reach a Five Year Low Seasonal Level, Down 22.6% YOY

According to the USDA, Aug ’21 month-end dry whey stocks increased contraseasonally to a six month high level but remained 22.6% below previous year levels, reaching a five year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in dry whey stocks was the 11th experienced throughout the past 12 months.

The month-over-month increase in dry whey stocks of 1.1 million pounds, or 1.7%, was a slight contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average July – August seasonal decline in dry whey stocks of 2.9 million pounds, or 5.1%. Dry whey production declined 3.3% on a YOY basis throughout Aug ’21, finishing below previous year figures for the 13th time in the past 15 months.

On a days of usage basis, Aug ’21 U.S. dry whey stocks also remained lower YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of August, dry whey stocks on a days of usage basis finished 21.0% lower YOY, declining on a YOY basis for the 11th time in the past 12 months.

Nonfat Dry Milk – Stocks Reach the Second Highest Seasonal Level on Record, up 2.8% YOY

Aug ’21 month-end nonfat dry milk (NFDM) stocks declined seasonally to an eight month low level but remained 2.8% above previous year levels, reaching the second highest seasonal level on record. The YOY increase in NFDM stocks was the fourth experienced in a row.

The month-over-month decline in NFDM stocks of 28.2 million pounds, or 9.0%, was fairly consistent with the ten year average July – August seasonal decline in stocks of 21.4 million pounds, or 9.1%. NFDM production declined 17.0% on a YOY basis throughout Aug ’21, reaching a five year low seasonal level.

On a days of usage basis, Aug ’21 U.S. NFDM stocks finished lower YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of August, NFDM stocks on a days of usage basis finished 3.2% below previous year figures, declining on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month.

Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Stocks Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level, Finish up 1.8% YOY

Aug ’21 combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and NFDM finished 1.8% above previous year levels, reaching a record high seasonal level for the month of August. Combined dairy product stocks have reached record high seasonal levels over 18 of the past 19 months through Aug ’21.

U.S. Dairy Product Production Update – Oct ’21
Global Dairy Trade Results Update – 10/5/21
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Recent Dairy Research

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  • Global Dairy Trade Update 11-15-22
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  • USDA Semi-Annual EU Dairy Production Report
  • U.S. Dairy Cold Storage Update – May ’22
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