Executive Summary

U.S. cattle & hog production figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Sep ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• Sep ’21 U.S. commercial red meat production finished 6.8% below previous year levels when normalizing for slaughter days, remaining lower on a YOY basis for the fourth consecutive month and reaching a five year low seasonal level.
• U.S. pork production declined 7.0% on a YOY basis, remaining below previous year levels for the fourth consecutive month and reaching a three year low seasonal level. The total number of hogs slaughtered declined 6.5% on a YOY basis throughout Sep ’21 while average weights per head finished 0.7% lower YOY.
• U.S. beef production declined 6.5% on a YOY basis, remaining below previous year levels for the third consecutive month and reaching a five year low seasonal level. The total number of cattle slaughtered declined 5.0% on a YOY basis throughout Sep ’21 while average weights per head finished 1.0% lower YOY.

Additional Report Details

Total Red Meat – Production Declines to a Five Year Low Seasonal Level, Down 6.8% YOY

According to the USDA, Sep ’21 U.S. commercial red meat production declined contraseasonally from the previous month when normalizing for slaughter days while finishing 6.8% below previous year levels, reaching a five year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in total red meat production was the fourth experienced in a row. The month-over-month decline in total red meat production of 0.2% was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average August – September seasonal build in production of 5.3%.

’19-’20 annual red meat production finished 1.5% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a record high level for the fourth consecutive year. ’20-’21 annual red meat production increased by an additional 0.2% on a YOY basis, despite the recently experienced declines.

Total 12-month rolling average red meat production remained above trendline for the 49^th consecutive month throughout Sep ’21. The most recent deviation from trendline was the smallest experienced throughout the past six months, however.

Pork – Production Declines to a Three Year Low Seasonal Level, Down 7.0% YOY

Sep ’21 U.S. pork production rebounded seasonally to a five month high level when normalizing for slaughter days but remained 7.0% below previous year levels, reaching a three year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in pork production was the fourth experienced in a row. The Sep ’21 total number of hogs slaughtered declined 6.5% YOY throughout the month while average weights per head finished 0.7% below previous year levels.

’19-’20 annual pork production finished 3.3% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a record high level for the sixth consecutive year. ’20-’21 annual pork production declined by 1.5% on a YOY basis, however.

Beef – Production Declines to a Five Year Low Seasonal Level, Down 6.5% YOY

Sep ’21 U.S. beef production declined contraseasonally from the previous month when normalizing for slaughter days while finishing 6.5% below previous year levels, reaching a five year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in beef production was the third experienced in a row. The Sep ’21 total number of cattle slaughtered declined 5.0% YOY throughout the month while average weights per head finished 1.0% below previous year levels.

’19-’20 annual beef production declined 0.2% on a YOY basis from the 16 year high level experienced throughout the previous production season. ’20-’21 annual beef production rebounded by 2.2% on a YOY basis, however, reaching a record high annual level, despite the recently experienced declines.