Executive Summary

U.S. dairy cow slaughter figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Sep ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• Sep ’21 U.S. dairy cow slaughter rates increased 1.5% on a YOY basis when normalizing for slaughter days, remaining above previous year levels for the fourth consecutive month.
• Sep ’21 YOY increases in dairy cow slaughter rates were led by were led by Standard Federal Region 6 (Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas), followed by Standard Federal Region 7 (Iowa, Kansas, Missouri and Nebraska).
• Recent upticks in slaughter rates have contributed to the Sep ’21 U.S. milk cow herd finishing 85,000 head below recently experienced 26 year high levels, declining to an 11 month low level, overall.

Additional Report Details

According to the USDA, Sep ’21 U.S. dairy cow slaughter rates increased seasonally to a six month high level while finishing 1.5% above previous year levels when normalizing for slaughter days. The month-over-month increase in slaughter rates of 1.2% was significantly smaller than the ten year average August – September seasonal increase of 8.4%, however.

Dairy cow slaughter rates had finished higher on a YOY basis over 30 consecutive months through Jul ’19 prior to finishing flat or lower throughout 18 of 22 months through May ’21. More recently, dairy cow slaughter rates have finished higher on a YOY basis over four consecutive months through Sep ’21.

’20-’21 annual U.S. dairy cow slaughter rates remained 1.0% below previous year levels, reaching a four year low annual level, despite the recently experienced increases.

Month-over-month increases in dairy cow slaughter rates were most significant throughout Standard Federal Region 9 (Arizona, California, Hawaii and Nevada), followed by Standard Federal Region 10 (Alaska, Idaho, Oregon and Washington).

YOY increases in dairy cow slaughter were led by Standard Federal Region 6 (Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas), followed by Standard Federal Region 7 (Iowa, Kansas, Missouri and Nebraska).

The U.S. milk cow herd expanded significantly throughout the first half of 2021, aided by reduced slaughter rates. More recently, the Sep ’21 U.S. milk cow herd figure finished 85,000 head below the 26 year high level experienced throughout May ’21, reaching an 11 month low level but remaining 27,000 head above the previous year.

2019 annual dairy cow slaughter rates increased 2.3% on a YOY basis, reaching a 33 year high and a 35 year high level on a percentage of the total dairy cow herd basis. 2020 annual dairy cow slaughter rates declined 5.6% on a YOY basis, however, reaching a three year low level on both an absolute and percentage of the total dairy cow herd basis.