Executive Summary

U.S. cold storage figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Sep ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. pork stocks finished 0.2% above previous year levels throughout Sep ’21, increasing on a YOY basis for the first time in the past 18 months. Pork stocks remained at the second lowest seasonal level experienced throughout the past 11 years, however.
• U.S. beef stocks remained at a seven year low seasonal level throughout Sep ’21, finishing 6.0% below previous year levels. The YOY decline in beef stocks was the seventh experienced in a row.
• U.S. chicken stocks remained at a seven year low seasonal level throughout Sep ’21, finishing 17.1% below previous year levels. The YOY decline in chicken stocks was the 14^th experienced in a row.

Additional Report Details

Pork – Stocks Finish Slightly Higher YOY, Remain at the Second Lowest Seasonal Level in 11 Years

According to the USDA, Sep ’21 U.S. frozen pork stocks increased seasonally to a seven month high level while finishing 0.2% above previous year levels. The YOY increase in pork stocks was the first experienced throughout the past 18 months. Pork stocks remained at the second lowest seasonal level experienced throughout the past 11 years, however. The month-over-month increase in pork stocks of 12.1 million pound, or 2.7%, was slightly smaller than the ten year average August – September seasonal build in stocks of 19.8 million pounds, or 3.7%.

Beef – Stocks Remain at a Seven Year Low Seasonal Level, Finish 6.0% Lower YOY

Sep ’21 U.S. frozen beef stocks increased seasonally to a five month high level but remained 6.0% below previous year volumes. Beef stocks remained at a seven year low seasonal level for the fourth consecutive month throughout Sep ’21, finishing below previous year levels for the seventh consecutive month. The month-over-month increase in beef stocks of 20.4 million pounds, or 4.9%, was slightly larger than the ten year average August – September seasonal build in stocks of 14.6 million pounds, or 3.3%.

Chicken – Stocks Remain at a Seven Year Low Seasonal Level, Down 17.1% YOY

Sep ’21 U.S. frozen chicken stocks rebounded seasonally from the six and a half year low level experienced throughout the previous month but remained 17.1% below previous year levels. Chicken stocks remained at a seven year low seasonal level for the month of September, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the 14^th consecutive month. Chicken stocks had finished higher on a YOY basis over ten consecutive months prior to finishing lower over each of the past 14 months. The month-over-month increase in chicken stocks of 23.4 million pounds, or 3.3%, was larger than the ten year average August – September seasonal build in stocks of 4.8 million pounds, or 0.4%.

Overall, Sep ’21 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks finished 21% below the monthly record high level experienced throughout Jan ’20. Individually, Sep ’21 beef and chicken stocks finished 24% and 25% below their respective record high historical storage levels, while pork stocks finished 34% below the maximum historical storage level.

Sep ’21 combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks remained at a seven year low seasonal level, finishing 20% below the record high seasonal level experienced during September of 2018. Individually, Sep ’21 beef and chicken stocks finished 16% and 23% below their respective record high seasonal storage levels, while pork stocks finished 29% below the record high seasonal storage level.

Combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks rebounded seasonally to a six month high level but remained 9.8% below previous year levels. The Sep ’21 YOY decline in combined U.S. pork, beef and chicken stocks was the 17^th experienced in a row.