Executive Summary

U.S. dairy commercial disappearance figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Sep ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products finished below previous year levels on both a milk-fat and skim-solids basis throughout Sep ’21. Despite declining on a YOY basis, commercial disappearance remained at the second highest seasonal levels on record on both a milk-fat and skim-solids basis. Domestic demand declined 3.5% YOY on a milk-fat basis and 3.8% YOY on a skim-solids basis throughout the month.
• U.S. cheese and nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder disappearance each finished below previous year levels but remained at the second highest seasonal levels on record throughout Sep ’21. Butter disappearance also finished below previous year levels but remained at the third highest seasonal level on record for the month of September. Dry whey commercial disappearance remained below previous year levels for the fifth consecutive month, however whey protein concentration disappearance finished above previous year levels for the fifth time in the past six months.
• U.S. fluid milk sales finished lower on a YOY basis for the 11^th time in the past 13 months throughout Aug ’21, declining by 1.7% and reaching a record low seasonal level.

Additional Report Details

All Milk – Disappearance Finishes Lower YOY on Both a Milk-Fat and Skim-Solids Basis

According to the USDA, U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a milk-fat basis finished below previous year levels for the first time in the past nine months throughout Sep ’21, declining by 1.7%. Despite declining on a YOY basis, commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a milk-fat basis remained at the second highest seasonal level on record for the month of September. Domestic disappearance declined 3.5% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 44.4% YOY increase in export demand.

’20-’21 annual commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a milk-fat basis increased 2.3% YOY, reaching a record high annual level for the 12^th consecutive year. Domestic disappearance increased 1.6%, also reaching the highest annual figure on record.

U.S. commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis declined by 0.9% on a YOY basis throughout Sep ’21 but also remained at the second highest seasonal level on record for the month of September. Domestic disappearance declined 3.8% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting an 11.1% YOY increase in export demand.

’20-’21 annual commercial disappearance for milk used in all products on a skim-solids basis increased 1.9% YOY, reaching a record high annual level for the second consecutive year. Domestic disappearance finished 0.1% below the record high annual level experienced throughout the previous production season, however.

Butter – Disappearance Finishes Lower YOY for the First Time in Three Months, Down 0.4%

U.S. butter commercial disappearance declined 0.4% on a YOY basis throughout Sep ’21, finishing below previous year levels for the first time in the past three months. Despite declining on a YOY basis, butter commercial disappearance remained at the third highest seasonal level on record for the month of September. Domestic butter disappearance declined 2.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 111.5% YOY increase in export demand.

’20-’21 annual butter disappearance finished 3.8% higher YOY, reaching a record high annual level for the fourth consecutive year. Domestic disappearance increased 1.7%, also reaching the highest annual figure on record.

U.S. butter domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures throughout Sep ’21, resulting in stocks declining seasonally to a nine month low level. Butter stocks typically reach a seasonal peak throughout the month of May, prior to declining seasonally through the month of November.

Cheese – Disappearance Finishes Lower YOY for the First Time in Three Months, Down 0.3%

U.S. cheese commercial disappearance declined 0.3% on a YOY basis throughout Sep ’21, finishing below previous year levels for the first time in the past three months. Despite declining on a YOY basis, cheese commercial disappearance remained at the second highest seasonal level on record for the month of September. American cheese disappearance declined 2.3% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 1.0% YOY increase in other-than-American cheese disappearance. Domestic cheese disappearance declined 1.5% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 20.5% YOY increase in export demand.

’20-’21 annual cheese disappearance finished 2.5% higher YOY, reaching a record high annual level for the 26^th consecutive year. Domestic disappearance increased 2.4%, also reaching the highest annual figure on record.

U.S. cheese production and import figures outpaced domestic use and export figures throughout Sep ’21, resulting in stocks increasing contraseasonally to a six month high level.

Dry Whey – Disappearance Remains Lower YOY for the Fifth Consecutive Month, Down 6.3%

U.S. dry whey commercial disappearance declined 6.3% on a YOY basis throughout Sep ’21, reaching a three year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in dry whey commercial disappearance was the fifth experienced in a row. Domestic dry whey disappearance declined 12.2% on a YOY basis throughout the month while export demand finished 0.2% below previous year levels. The YOY decline in domestic dry whey demand was the 16^th experienced throughout the past 18 months.

’20-’21 annual dry whey disappearance finished 3.4% below previous year levels, reaching a six year low annual level. Domestic disappearance declined 22.6%, reaching a seven year low level.

U.S. dry whey domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures throughout Sep ’21, resulting in stocks declining to a three month low level.

WPC – Disappearance Remains Higher YOY for the Fifth Time in Six Months, up 5.1%

U.S. whey protein concentrate (WPC) commercial disappearance increased 5.1% on a YOY basis throughout Sep ’21, reaching a three year high seasonal level. The YOY increase in WPC commercial disappearance was the fifth experienced throughout the past six months. Domestic WPC disappearance increased 52.1% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 23.2% YOY decline in export demand.

’20-’21 annual WPC disappearance finished 0.7% higher YOY, rebounding from the seven year low annual level experienced throughout the previous production season. Domestic disappearance remained 6.7% below previous year levels, however, reaching a nine year low annual level.

U.S. WPC domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures throughout Sep ’21, resulting in stocks declining to a five month low level.

NFDM/SMP – Disappearance Remains Lower YOY for the Fourth Time in Five Months, Down 8.0%

U.S. nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) commercial disappearance declined 8.0% on a YOY basis throughout Sep ’21, finishing below previous year levels for the fourth time in the past five months. Despite declining on a YOY basis, NFDM/SMP commercial disappearance remained at the second highest seasonal level on record for the month of September. Domestic NFDM/SMP disappearance declined 36.2% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 16.2% YOY increase in export demand.

’20-’21 annual NFDM/SMP disappearance finished 1.6% higher YOY, reaching a record high annual level for the second consecutive year. Domestic disappearance declined 14.3%, however, reaching a 21 year low annual level.

U.S. NFDM/SMP domestic use and export figures outpaced production and import figures throughout Sep ’21, resulting in stocks declining seasonally to an 11 month low level.

Sep ’21 increases in domestic commercial disappearance were led by WPC, while declines were most significant for NFDM/SMP and cheese. YOY increases in international commercial disappearance were led by NFDM/SMP, followed by cheese, while declines were most significant for WPC.

Fluid Milk – Total Milk Sales Remain at a Record Low Seasonal Level, Down 1.7% YOY

U.S. fluid milk sales finished lower on a YOY basis for the 11^th time in the past 13 months during Aug ’21, declining by 1.7% and remaining at a record low seasonal level. Fluid milk sales have reached record low seasonal levels over five consecutive months through August. Sales of fat-free milk remained particularly weak, declining by 10.1% on a YOY basis throughout the month.

’19-’20 annual total fluid milk sales finished 0.6% above the record low level experienced throughout the previous production season, increasing on a YOY basis for the first time in the past 11 years. Annual fluid milk sales remained 0.2% below previous year levels throughout the 2020 calendar year, however. ’20-’21 YTD fluid milk sales have declined by 3.6% on a YOY basis heading into the final month of the production season and are on pace to reach a record low annual level.

Fat consumed within U.S. fluid milk declined on a YOY basis for the 12^th time in the past 13 months during Aug ’21, finishing down 2.0% and reaching a record low seasonal level. ’19-’20 annual total fat consumed within fluid milk rebounded 1.4% from the four year low level experienced throughout the previous production season, reaching a three year high level. ’20-’21 YTD fat consumed within fluid milk has declined by 4.4% on a YOY basis heading into the final month of the production season, however, and is on pace to reach the lowest annual level on record.