Executive Summary

U.S. cattle on feed figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through the end of Oct ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market as of Nov 1^st declined 0.2% on a YOY basis, remaining below previous year levels for the fifth consecutive month. The YOY decline in the cattle on feed supply was consistent with average analyst expectations.
• Placements in feedlots increased 2.4% on a YOY basis throughout Oct ’21, reaching a 13 month high level. Placements were consistent with average analyst expectations.
• Marketings of fed cattle declined 4.5% on a YOY basis throughout Oct ’21, finishing below previous year levels for the fourth consecutive month and reaching a five year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in marketings was slightly larger than average analyst expectations.

Additional Report Details

According to the USDA, Nov 1^st cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the U.S. for feedlots with capacity of a thousand head or more increased seasonally to an eight month high level but remained 0.2% below previous year levels. The YOY decline in the cattle on feed supply was the fifth experienced in a row but the smallest experienced throughout the five month period. The 0.2% YOY decline in the cattle on feed supply was consistent with average analyst expectations of a 0.3% decline.

Placements in feedlots increased seasonally to a 13 month high level throughout Oct ’21, finishing 2.4% above previous year levels. The 2.4% YOY increase in placements was consistent with average analyst expectations of a 2.3% increase. YOY increases in placements were led by those weighing 800 pounds or more (+5.7%), followed by placements weighing 700-799 pounds (+1.1%), 600-699 pounds (+1.0%) and 600 pounds or less (+0.9%).

Total placements in feedlots declined 0.9% on a YOY basis throughout the ’19-’20 production season, reaching a four year low level. ’20-’21 annual placements rebounded by 0.2% on a YOY basis.

Cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds increased 0.9% on a YOY basis during Oct ’21, finishing above previous year levels for the first time in the past six months. Cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds finished 0.2% above previous year levels throughout the ’19-’20 production season however ’20-’21 annual placements weighing under 700 pounds declined by 2.6% on a YOY basis, reaching a four year low level.

Cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more increased 3.8% on a YOY basis during Oct ’21, finishing above previous year levels for the eighth time in the past 11 months. Cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more declined 1.7% on a YOY basis throughout the ’19-’20 production season however ’20-’21 annual placements weighing 700 pounds or more rebounded by 2.1% on a YOY basis.

Marketings of fed cattle declined 4.5% on a YOY basis throughout Oct ’21, reaching a five year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in marketings was the fourth experienced in a row. The 4.5% YOY decline in marketings was slightly larger than average analyst expectations of a 3.8% decline.

’19-’20 annual marketings of fed cattle declined 2.9% on a YOY basis from the 11 year high level experienced throughout the previous production season. ’20-’21 annual marketings rebounded by 3.1% on a YOY basis, reaching a 13 year high level.