European Milk Production Update – Nov ’21

Executive Summary

EU-27+UK milk deliveries provided by Eurostat and the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board of the United Kingdom were recently updated with values spanning through Sep ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• Sep ’21 EU-27+UK milk deliveries finished 0.5% below the record high seasonal level experienced throughout the previous year. The YOY decline in EU-27+UK milk deliveries was the second experienced throughout the past three months and the largest experienced throughout the past eight months on a percentage basis.
• Sep ’21 YOY declines in milk deliveries were led by Germany, followed by the Netherlands and France, while milk deliveries increased most significantly from the previous year throughout Ireland, followed by Italy. Overall, 17 of the 28 countries experienced YOY declines in milk deliveries throughout the month.
• EU-27+UK beef & dairy cow slaughter rates finished above previous year levels for the first time in the past three months during Aug ’21 when normalizing for slaughter days, increasing by 0.6% and reaching a three year high seasonal level.

Additional Report Details

Milk Production

According to Eurostat and the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board of the United Kingdom, Sep ’21 EU-27+UK milk deliveries declined seasonally to an eight month low level while finishing 0.5% below previous year figures. Despite declining on a YOY basis, Sep ’21 milk deliveries remained at the second highest seasonal level on record.

Figures for Luxembourg are not yet available and are based on the previous month YOY change in deliveries. Luxembourg has accounted for less than 1.0% of total EU-27+UK milk deliveries throughout the past 12 months.

’20-’21 annual EU-27+UK milk deliveries finished 0.5% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a record high level for the fourth consecutive year. ’21-’22 YTD EU-27+UK milk deliveries have increased by an additional 0.7% throughout the first half of the production season, despite the most recent decline.

The Sep ’21 YOY decline in EU-27+UK milk deliveries was the second experienced throughout the past three months and the largest experienced throughout the past eight months on a percentage basis. EU-27+UK milk deliveries finished higher on a YOY basis over 26 of 29 months through Jun ’21, prior to finishing below previous year levels over two of the three most recent months of available data.

Sep ’21 YOY declines in milk deliveries on an absolute basis were led by Germany, followed by the Netherlands and France, while YOY increases in deliveries on an absolute basis were led by Ireland, followed by Italy.

YOY declines in milk deliveries on a percentage basis were led by Malta (-20.3%), followed by Finland (-4.4%) and the Netherlands (-4.1%), while increases in milk deliveries on a percentage basis were led by Cyprus (+9.6%), followed by Ireland (+7.4%) and Greece (+6.9%).

Seven of the top ten milk producing member states experienced YOY declines in milk deliveries during Sep ’21, as deliveries within the top ten milk producing member states declined by a weighted average of 0.4% throughout the month. The top ten EU-27+UK milk producing member states accounted for over 85% of the total EU-27+UK milk deliveries experienced throughout the month. Milk deliveries outside of the top ten milk producing member states increased by 0.1% on a YOY basis, however. Overall, 17 of the 28 countries experienced YOY declines in milk deliveries during Sep ’21.

Beef & Dairy Cow Slaughter

EU-27+UK beef & dairy cow slaughter finished above previous year levels for the first time in the past three months during Aug ’21 when normalizing for slaughter days, increasing by 0.6% and reaching a three year high seasonal level. YOY increases in beef & dairy cow slaughter were most significant throughout Spain, followed by Italy and France.

’20-’21 annual EU-27+UK bovine slaughter declined on a YOY basis for the second consecutive year, finishing down 3.3% and reaching a seven year low level. The USDA is projecting a 1.0% YOY decline in the EU-27+UK dairy cow herd throughout the 2021 calendar, following the general trend towards an overall smaller herd size and more productive animals.