Executive Summary

U.S. cold storage figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Feb ’22. Highlights from the updated report include:

• Feb ’22 U.S. butter stocks increased seasonally to a four month high level but finished 25.8% below previous year levels, remaining at a three year low seasonal level for the second consecutive month. Butter stocks reached a seven year low seasonal level on a days of usage basis.
• Feb ’22 U.S. cheese stocks remained at a record high seasonal level for the tenth consecutive month, finishing 2.3% above previous year levels. On a days of usage basis, cheese stocks remained slightly below previous year levels, however.

Additional Report Details

Butter – Stocks Remain at a Three Year Low Seasonal Level, Down 25.8% YOY

According to the USDA, Feb ’22 U.S. butter stocks increased seasonally to a four month high level but remained 25.8% below previous year levels. The YOY decline in butter stocks was the seventh experienced in a row. Butter stocks had finished above previous year levels over 25 consecutive months through Jul ’21, prior to declining on a YOY basis over the seven most recently available data points.

The month-over-month increase in butter stocks of 43.7 million pounds, or 19.9%, was slightly larger than the ten year average January – February seasonal build of 36.4 million pounds, or 18.1%. Butter stocks typically reach seasonal low levels throughout the month of November, prior to rebounding seasonally throughout the month of December and the first half of the following calendar year. Butter stocks remained at a three year low seasonal level for the second consecutive month.

On a days of usage basis, Feb ’22 U.S. butter stocks also finished below previous year levels. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of February, butter stocks on a days of usage basis declined YOY for the eighth consecutive month, finishing down 27.9% and reaching a seven year low seasonal level.

Cheese – Stocks Remain at a Record High Seasonal Level, Finish 2.3% Higher YOY

Feb ’22 U.S. cheese stocks increased seasonally to a 22 month high level while finishing 2.3% above previous year levels, remaining at a record high seasonal level for the tenth consecutive month. The YOY increase in cheese stocks was the 15^th experienced throughout the past 16 months but the smallest experienced throughout the past eight months on a percentage basis. Cheese stocks reached the second highest monthly level on record, trailing only the Apr ’20 stock levels.

American cheese stocks finished 2.0% higher on a YOY basis throughout the month while other-than-American cheese stocks finished 2.7% above previous year levels. The month-over-month increase in cheese stocks of 24.2 million pounds, or 1.7%, was larger than the ten year average January – February seasonal build of 16.8 million pounds, or 1.4%.

On a days of usage basis, Feb ’22 U.S. cheese stocks remained slightly below previous year levels, however. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of February, cheese stocks on a days of usage basis declined YOY for the second consecutive month, finishing down 1.1% and reaching a three year low seasonal level.

Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Feb ’22 Stocks Projected to Remain Below Previous Year Levels

Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk finished 6.2% below previous year levels throughout Jan ’22, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month. The Jan ’22 YOY decline in combined stocks was the largest experienced throughout the past seven years on a percentage basis.

Combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and nonfat dry milk are projected to remain below previous year levels throughout Feb ’22 when using actual butter and cheese stock figures and previous month YOY changes in dry whey and nonfat dry milk stocks, declining by an estimated 5.4%. Feb ’22 dry whey and nonfat dry milk stock figures are scheduled to be available Apr 1^st.