Executive Summary

U.S. dairy cow slaughter figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Feb ’22. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. dairy cow slaughter rates finished 0.5% above previous year levels throughout Feb ’22 when normalizing for slaughter days, reaching a three year high seasonal level.
• YOY increases in dairy cow slaughter rates experienced throughout Feb ’22 were led by Standard Federal Region 6 (Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas).
• Recent upticks in slaughter rates contributed to the U.S. milk cow herd declining to a 19 month low level throughout Jan ’22, prior to rebounding slightly throughout the month of February.

Additional Report Details

According to the USDA, Feb ’22 U.S. dairy cow slaughter rates reached a 25 month high level when normalizing for slaughter days, finishing 0.5% above previous year levels and reaching a three year high seasonal level. The month-over-month increase in slaughter rates of 6.8% was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average January – February seasonal decline of 2.2%.

The Feb ’22 YOY increase in dairy cow slaughter rates was the first experienced throughout the past four months. Dairy cow slaughter rates have finished above previous year levels over five consecutive months through Oct ’21, prior to declining throughout the months of November – January. ’20-’21 annual U.S. dairy cow slaughter rates finished 1.0% below previous year levels, reaching a four year low annual level. ’21-’22 YTD slaughter rates have declined by an additional 1.3% on a YOY basis throughout the first five months of the production season, despite the most recent increase, and are on pace to reach a five year low level.

Month-over-month increases in dairy cow slaughter rates were most significant throughout Standard Federal Region 10 (Alaska, Idaho, Oregon and Washington), followed by Standard Federal Region 6 (Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas).

YOY increases in dairy cow slaughter were led by Standard Federal Region 6 (Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas), while declines were largest throughout Standard Federal Region 5 (Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio and Wisconsin).

The U.S. milk cow herd expanded significantly throughout the first half of 2021, aided by reduced slaughter rates. More recently, the U.S. milk cow herd has declined sharply from the 26 year high level experienced throughout May ’21, reaching a 19 month low level during Jan ’22 prior to rebounding slightly throughout the month of February.

2019 annual dairy cow slaughter rates increased 2.3% on a YOY basis, reaching a 33 year high level and a 35 year high level on a percentage of the total dairy cow herd basis. Dairy cow slaughter rates declined 5.6% on a YOY basis throughout 2020 prior to rebounding by 0.2% throughout 2021.