Executive Summary

U.S. cattle & hog production figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Mar ’22. Highlights from the updated report include:

• Mar ’22 U.S. commercial red meat production finished 1.4% below previous year levels when normalizing for slaughter days, reaching a three year low seasonal level. The YOY decline in total red meat production was the ninth experienced throughout the past ten months.
• U.S. pork production declined 3.6% on a YOY basis throughout Mar ’22, remaining at a three year low seasonal level for the third consecutive month. The YOY decline in pork production was the tenth experienced in a row but the smallest experienced throughout the ten month period.
• U.S. beef production increased 1.0% on a YOY basis throughout Mar ’22, reaching the second highest seasonal level on record. The YOY increase in beef production was the third experienced in a row.

Additional Report Details

Total Red Meat – Production Declines to a Three Year Low Seasonal Level, Down 1.4% YOY

According to the USDA, Mar ’22 U.S. commercial red meat production declined contraseasonally from the previous month while finishing 1.4% below previous year levels when normalizing for slaughter days. Commercial red meat production reached a three year low seasonal level for the month of March. The YOY decline in total red meat production was the ninth experienced throughout the past ten months. The month-over-month decline in total red meat production of 1.1% was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average February – March seasonal increase of 0.7%.

’20-’21 annual red meat production finished 0.3% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a record high level for the fifth consecutive year. ’21-’22 YTD red meat production has declined by 2.6% on a YOY basis throughout the first half of the production season, however, and is on pace to reach a three year low level.

Total 12-month rolling average red meat production remained above trendline for the 55^th consecutive month throughout Mar ’22. The most recent deviation from trendline was the smallest experienced throughout the past 44 months, however.

Pork – Production Remains at a Three Year Low Seasonal Level, Down 3.6% YOY

U.S. pork production finished 3.6% below previous year levels throughout Mar ’22 when normalizing for slaughter days, remaining at a three year low seasonal level for the third consecutive month. The YOY decline in pork production was the tenth experienced in a row but the smallest experienced throughout the ten month period. The total number of hogs slaughtered declined 4.2% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 0.7% YOY increase in average weights per head.

’20-’21 annual pork production finished 1.5% below the record high level experienced throughout the previous year, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the first time in the past seven years. ’21-’22 YTD pork production has declined by an additional 5.6% on a YOY basis throughout the first half of the production season and is on pace to reach a three year low level.

Beef – Production Remains Above Previous Year Levels for the Third Consecutive Month, up 1.0%

Mar ’22 U.S. beef production finished 1.0% above previous year levels when normalizing for slaughter days, reaching the second highest seasonal level on record. The YOY increase in beef production was the third experienced in a row. The total number of cattle slaughtered increased 0.2% on a YOY basis throughout the month while average weights per head finished 0.9% above previous year levels.

’20-’21 annual beef production finished 2.2% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a record high level. ’21-’22 YTD beef production has increased by an additional 0.5% on a YOY basis throughout the first half of the production season.