U.S. Milk per Cow Update – May ’15
Figures on spring flush milk production will begin to become available in mid-May when USDA publishes the May ’15 U.S. milk production report. The May ’15 report will include milk production figures through Apr ’15, which is when U.S. milk per cow yields historically peak seasonally. Spring flush can be a catalyst to soften prices, as shown below, however effects of the current flush may be mitigated by poor California milk production. California milk production has struggled of late, with production declining YOY over each of the past four months. Poor milk per cow yields accounted for the majority of the YOY declines in California milk production, with yields down 2.2% YOY over the period. Mar ’15 California milk per cow yields were just 0.4% above the previous five year average March per cow yields and significantly less than the Mar ’15 U.S. total milk per cow growth of 3.2% against the same average. Other major milk producing states including Wisconsin and New York have experienced above average per cow growth, with Mar ’15 milk per cow yields 5.7% and 3.9% above the previous five year average March per cow yields, respectively, however declines in California milk production outweighed the gains experienced in these states. Overall, U.S. milk production remains up 1.7% through the first quarter of 2015, however, when excluding California, production is up 3.0% over the same period. If California milk production continues to struggle, spring flush milk production may be less pronounced than previous years.