Executive Summary

U.S. cattle & hog production figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Aug ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• Aug ’21 U.S. commercial red meat production finished 4.3% below previous year levels when normalizing for slaughter days, remaining lower on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month.
• U.S. pork production declined 7.4% on a YOY basis, remaining below previous year levels for the third consecutive month. The total number of hogs slaughtered declined 6.6% on a YOY basis throughout Aug ’21 while average weights per head finished 0.7% lower YOY.
• U.S. beef production declined 1.1% on a YOY basis, remaining below previous year levels for the second consecutive month. Average weights per head declined by 0.8% on a YOY basis throughout the month, more than offsetting a 0.7% YOY increase in the total number of cattle slaughtered.

Additional Report Details

Total Red Meat – Production Declines to a Four Year Low Seasonal Level, Down 7.0% YOY

According to the USDA, Aug ’21 U.S. commercial red meat production rebounded from the 14 month low level experienced throughout the previous month but remained 4.3% below previous year levels when normalizing for slaughter days. The YOY decline in total red meat production was the third experienced in a row. Despite declining on a YOY basis, total red meat production remained at the second highest seasonal level on record for the month of August. The month-over-month increase in total red meat production of 4.7% was larger than the ten year average July – August seasonal build in production of 1.6%.

’19-’20 annual red meat production finished 1.5% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a record high level for the fourth consecutive year. ’20-’21 YTD red meat production has increased by an additional 0.9% on a YOY basis heading into the final month of the production season, despite the recent declines.

Total 12-month rolling average red meat production remained above trendline for the 48^th consecutive month throughout Aug ’21. The most recent deviation from trendline was the smallest experienced throughout the past five months, however.

Pork – Production Remains Lower YOY for the Third Consecutive Month, Down 7.4%

Aug ’21 U.S. pork production rebounded from the 14 month low level experienced throughout the previous month but remained 7.4% below previous year levels when normalizing for slaughter days. The YOY decline in pork production was the third experienced in a row. The Aug ’21 total number of hogs slaughtered declined 6.6% YOY throughout the month while average weights per head finished 0.7% below previous year levels.

’19-’20 annual pork production finished 3.3% higher on a YOY basis, reaching a record high level for the sixth consecutive year. ’20-’21 YTD pork production has declined by 1.0% on a YOY basis heading into the final month of the production season, however.

Beef – Production Remains Lower YOY for the Second Consecutive Month, Down 1.1%

Aug ’21 U.S. beef production finished 1.1% below previous year levels when normalizing for slaughter days, remaining lower on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month. A 0.8% YOY decline in average weights per head more than offset a 0.7% YOY increase in the number of cattle slaughtered throughout Aug ’21.

’19-’20 annual beef production declined 0.2% on a YOY basis from the 16 year high level experienced throughout the previous production season. ’20-’21 YTD beef production has rebounded by 3.0% on a YOY basis heading into the final month of the production season, however, despite the most recent decline, and is on pace to reach a record high annual level.