China Dairy Imports Update – Jan ’15
Total Chinese dairy import volumes reached a new annual record high during 2014 after significant gains were achieved in the first half of the year. On a YOY basis, total Chinese dairy imports finished 2014 up 14.2%, with whole milk powder (WMP) volumes finishing up 9.0% and skim milk powder (SMP) volumes finishing up 8.1%. More recently, however, YOY declines in import volumes over the second half of 2014 contributed to significant price declines in global dairy markets. Total Chinese dairy import volumes declined 19.3% YOY over the second half of the year, with WMP and SMP export volumes down 55.3% and 33.3%, respectively. YOY declines have continued to accelerate throughout recent months, with Nov-Dec ’14 total dairy import volumes declining by 43.1% and 38.5% YOY, respectively, which were the largest YOY declines in nearly ten years.
Chinese dairy import figures continue to weigh heavily on global dairy markets as excessive global supply has driven prices downward. Total Chinese import volumes increased slightly on a MOM basis over the last two months but remain significantly below recent year levels. Market participants will continue to closely watch Chinese dairy import figures over the coming months to see if Chinese import volumes continue to rebound from the relative lows experienced in late 2014. Jan ’15 Chinese import figures are expected to be released in late February.
Total Chinese Dairy Imports Have Dropped Considerably From the Early 2014 Record Highs
2014 Chinese Dairy Import Volumes Finished up 14.2% YOY but Down 38.5% YOY in Dec ’14
2014 Chinese WMP Import Volumes Finished up 9.0% YOY but Down 70.9% YOY in Dec ’14
2014 Chinese SMP Import Volumes Finished up 8.1% YOY but Down 57.8% YOY in Dec ’14