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U.S. Dairy Dry Product Stocks Update – Oct ’19

  • October 9, 2019February 10, 2020
  • by Belinda Przybylski
Executive Summary U.S. dairy dry product stock figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Aug ’19. Highlights from the updated report include:
  • Aug ’19 U.S. dry whey stocks increased contraseasonally but remained 1.8% lower on a YOY basis.
  • Aug ’19 U.S. nonfat dry milk stocks remained lower on a YOY basis for the third consecutive month, finishing down 3.8%.
Additional Report Details Dry Whey – Stocks Increase Contraseasonally but Remain Down 1.8% YOY Aug ’19 month-end dry whey stocks increased to a four month high but remained down 1.8% on a YOY basis, reaching a three year seasonal low level. The MOM increase in dry whey stocks of 4.8 million pounds, or 7.1%, was a contraseasonal move when compared to the ten year average July – August seasonal decline in dry whey stocks of 4.9 million pounds, or 8.3%. Dry whey production increased 7.2% on a YOY basis throughout Aug ’19, contributing to the contraseasonal increase in stocks. On a days of usage basis, Aug ’19 U.S. dry whey stocks finished higher YOY, however. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of August, dry whey stocks on a days of usage basis finished up 10.4% YOY, increasing YOY for the fourth time in the past six months. Nonfat Dry Milk – Stocks Remain Lower YOY for the Third Consecutive Month, Finish Down 3.8% Aug ’19 month-end nonfat dry milk (NFDM) stocks declined 6.5% MOM to a ten month low while finishing 3.8% lower on a YOY basis, reaching a three year seasonal low level. The YOY decline in NFDM stocks was the third experienced in a row. The MOM decline in NFDM stocks of 18.9 million pounds, or 6.5%, was smaller than the ten year average July – August seasonal decline in NFDM stocks of 22.3 million pounds, or 10.8%. On a days of usage basis, Aug ’19 U.S. NFDM stocks also finished lower YOY. When assuming 12-month rolling average YOY changes in usage rates and known stock values for the month of August, NFDM stocks on a days of usage basis finished down 0.4% YOY, also declining YOY for the third consecutive month. Combined Dairy Product Stocks – Stocks Higher YOY for the First Time in Four Months, up 0.2% Aug ’19 combined stocks of butter, cheese, dry whey and NFDM increased on a YOY basis for the first time in the past four months, finishing up 0.2%. Combined dairy product stocks remained 0.8% below the record high seasonal level experienced during August of 2017, however.  
U.S. Dairy Product Production Update – Oct ’19
Dairy WASDE Update – Oct ’19
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11406 US Route 20 W
Galena, IL 61036
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