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Soybean Complex Crushing & Stocks Update – Nov ’19

  • November 1, 2019February 10, 2020
  • by Belinda Przybylski
Executive Summary U.S. soybean crush and stocks figures provided by USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Sep ’19. Highlights from the updated report include:
  • Sep ’19 U.S. soybean crushings declined on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three months, finishing down 4.3% but remaining at the second highest seasonal level experienced throughout the past five years.
  • Sep ’19 U.S. soybean cake & meal stocks declined 28.1% YOY but remained at the second highest seasonal level experienced throughout the past five years.
  • Sep ’19 U.S. soybean oil stocks declined to a 22 month low level, finishing 15.0% below previous year volumes and reaching a five year seasonal low.
Additional Report Details Soybean Crushing – Crush Declines YOY for the First Time in Three Months, Finishes Down 4.3% According to USDA, Sep ’19 U.S. soybean crushings finished lower on a YOY basis for the first time in the past three months, declining 4.3% but remaining at the second highest seasonal level experienced throughout the past five years. Sep ’19 YOY declines in soybean crushings were largest throughout the West Central states of Kansas, Missouri and Nebraska, followed by the South, West & Pacific states of Alabama, Arkansas, California, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina and South Carolina. Soybean crushings finished most significantly higher on a YOY basis throughout the North Central states of Michigan, Minnesota, North Dakota and South Dakota during Sep ’19. 2018 annual soybean crushings increased 9.4% YOY, reaching a record annual high, however 2019 YTD soybean crushings have declined 1.0% on a YOY basis throughout the first three quarters of the calendar year. Cake & Meal accounted for 73.0% of the total soybean crush throughout Sep ’19, down slightly from the previous year, while oil accounted for 17.7% of the total soybean crush, up slightly from the previous year. Sep ’19 soybean oil produced as a percentage of total crush increased to a two year high level, finishing above historical average figures for the 11th time in the past 12 months. Soybean Cake & Meal Stocks – Stocks Finish 28.1% Lower YOY Sep ’19 U.S. soybean cake & meal stocks declined 6.4% MOM and 28.1% YOY, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the second time in the past three months. Soybean cake & meal stocks remained at the second highest seasonal level experienced throughout the past five years, however. The seasonal decline in soybean cake & meal stocks of 6.4% was a contraseasonal move when compared to the three year August – September seasonal average build in stocks of 18.4%. Soybean Oil Stocks – Stocks Decline to a 22 Month Low, Finish Down 15.0% YOY Sep ’19 U.S. soybean oil stocks declined 2.7% MOM to a 22 month low level, finishing 15.0% below previous year volumes and reaching a five year seasonal low level. The YOY decline in soybean oil stocks was the ninth experienced in a row but the smallest experienced throughout the past six months on a percentage basis. The seasonal decline in soybean oil stocks of 2.7% was smaller than the three year August – September seasonal average decline of 10.4%.  
Soybean Complex Price & Value Update – Nov ’19
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