Executive Summary

U.S. cattle on feed figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through the end of May ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market as of Jun 1^st increased 0.2% YOY, finishing higher for the 11^th consecutive month. The YOY increase in the cattle on feed supply was slightly smaller than average analyst expectations.
• Placements in feedlots declined 6.9% on a YOY basis throughout May ’21, finishing below previous year levels for the first time in the past six months. The YOY decline in placements was larger than average analyst expectations.
• Marketings of fed cattle increased 23.4% on a YOY basis throughout May ’21, finishing above previous year levels for the fourth consecutive month. The YOY increase in marketings was consistent with average analyst expectations. Marketings remained 9.7% below 2019 seasonal levels, however.

Additional Report Details

According to the USDA, Jun 1^st cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the U.S. for feedlots with capacity of a thousand head or more declined to a nine month low level but remained 0.2% higher on a YOY basis, reaching the second highest seasonal level on record. The YOY increase in the cattle on feed supply was the 11^th experienced in a row. The 0.2% YOY increase in the cattle on feed supply was slightly smaller than average analyst expectations of a 0.7% increase, however.

Placements in feedlots finished lower on a YOY basis for the first time in the past six months throughout May ’21, declining by 6.9%. The 6.9% YOY decline in placements was greater than average analyst expectations of a 4.6% decline. YOY declines in placements were widespread across weight groups and led by those weighing 600-699 pounds (-17.7%), followed by placements weighing 600 pounds or less (-6.6%), 800 pounds or more (-5.2%) and 700-799 pounds (-3.1%).

Total placements in feedlots declined 0.9% on a YOY basis throughout the ’19-’20 production season, reaching a four year low level. ’20-’21 YTD placements have rebounded by 2.3% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season, despite the most recent decline.

Cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds declined 11.6% on a YOY basis during May ’21, reaching a five year low seasonal level. Cattle placements weighing under 700 pounds finished 0.2% above previous year levels throughout the ’19-’20 production season while ’20-’21 YTD placements weighing under 700 pounds have increased by an additional 0.5% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season, despite the most recent decline.

Cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more declined 4.5% on a YOY basis during May ’21, finishing lower on a YOY basis for the first time in the past six months and reaching a six year low seasonal level. Cattle placements weighing 700 pounds or more declined 1.7% on a YOY basis throughout the ’19-’20 production season however ’20-’21 YTD placements weighing 700 pounds or more have rebounded by 3.7% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season, despite the most recent decline.

Marketings of fed cattle increased 23.4% on a YOY basis throughout May ’21, finishing above previous year levels for the fourth consecutive month. The 23.4% YOY increase in marketings was consistent with average analyst expectations of a 23.6% increase. Marketings of fed cattle had reached record low levels over the months of April and May 2020 as slaughterhouses slowed or closed operations due to outbreaks of COVID-19. Marketings remained 9.7% below 2019 seasonal levels.

’19-’20 annual marketings of fed cattle declined 2.9% on a YOY basis from the 11 year high level experienced throughout the previous production season. ’20-’21 YTD marketings have rebounded by 5.5% on a YOY basis throughout the first two thirds of the production season and are on pace to reach an 18 year high level.